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MNI SNB Review - March 2023: Inflation the Distinct Priority

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Executive Summary:

  • Bank reinstated the Eurozone-Swiss rate differential, with a 50bps hike
  • Inflation clearly remains the priority, despite turmoil in local banks
  • CPI forecasts bumped higher across forecast horizon
Full review including summary of sell-side views here:

MNISNBRevMar23.pdf

The Swiss National Bank looked through the local banking crisis to raise rates by a further 50bps at the March quarterly meeting. Despite wavering pricing headed into the meeting, the decision confirms that inflation remains the distinct priority, with near-term uncertainty surrounding financial stability seen as tangential to monetary policy. The baseline now looks for a further 25bps hike in June, bringing rates to a possible cycle peak of 1.75%.
The distinct priority for policy was made clear in both the policy statement as well as the subsequent press conference, as Jordan clarified that “not hiking rates was not on the table for us”, that the rate hike “will not have a negative impact” and that their liquidity provision measures have “put a halt to the Credit Suisse crisis”. This confirms that persistent uncertainty for the domestic banking sector will be tolerated, and the bank can tighten financial conditions further via their balance sheet tools ahead of the June meeting.

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