MNI SOURCES: UK's Johnson Plans October Election If Polls Hold

By Kevin Woodfield and David Robinson

     LONDON (MNI) - The latest opinion polls put the UK government sufficiently

ahead to persuade Prime Minister Boris Johnson - if the lead persists into

September - to trigger Number 10 plans for a snap election this side of the Oct.

31 Brexit deadline, MNI understands.

     A YouGov poll of voting intentions carried out on July 29-30 show the

Tories on 32%, Labour on 22%, the Liberal Democrats on 19% and the Brexit Party

on 13%. Polls taken by other companies since July 24 have shown a Tory lead of

between one and five percentage points.

     Translated into seats under a simple calculator provided by Electoral

Calculus the YouGov poll would see Johnson's party returning with a majority of

80, up 47 seats on the 2017 general Election to 365, with Labour shedding 80

seats to 182 and the Liberal Democrats up 34 to 46.

     These are the sorts of polling numbers and predictions for seats that are

understood to be behind Number 10 - come September - giving the green light for

a move straight to a general election.

     "The exact figures - albeit for the end of the summer, not now - given to

me by a right-hand man of BJ as indicating 'all systems go'," as one observer

close to events puts it.

     Most commentators believe Johnson would welcome an election but only if his

hand is forced through a no-confidence vote brought by struggling opposition

leader Jeremy Corbyn. He could then fight an election full throttle on a 'Brexit

betrayal' narrative. Others stress the risk of going to the polls with Brexit

still not delivered and Nigel Farage's Brexit Party set to pounce.

     The sensitivity of votes-to-seats - only a couple of percentage points

extra for Labour in terms of votes would bring an Tory overall majority into

question - might also give reason to pause.

     --JOHNSON BOUNCE

     But the bounce in Conservative support since Johnson secured the leadership

last week - crucially, draining support from Nigel Farage and the Brexit Party

(down from around 20% in mid-July) - increases the odds that he will take the

initiative and call an election as soon as Parliament returns in the first week

of September. The vote would then take place in mid-to-late October - barely

more than a week before the UK's deadline to depart the European Union.

     As the observer above puts it: "High-risk, of course. But there is just no

non-risky option from here."

     Johnson only five days ago ruled out calling an election before Oct. 31 but

could scarcely say otherwise if the game plan is to call one at the beginning of

September. Similarly, he can be seen as preparing the election campaign ground

by putting the chances of no-deal Brexit at a "million to one" and positioning

Brussels as the intransigent partner.

     A government-proposed election would require a two-thirds majority vote in

the House of Commons under the Fixed Term Parliament Act, but Johnson would be

expected to carry the day with Labour - crying out for an early election - faced

with little choice but to vote in favour.

     --MANIFESTO MINDGAMES

     Johnson's biggest headache is thought to be how he frames the Tory

manifesto on Brexit for a snap autumn election. The need to outflank the Brexit

Party could lead him to stick with a 'no deal' strategy that would push out many

moderate Conservatives.

     But there are those who regard Johnson's appointment of Vote Leave guru

Dominic Cummings as his chief Number 10 strategist as firm evidence that his

primary objective is to call and win a pre-Brexit election to deliver a strong

five-year majority.

--MNI London Bureau; +44 203 865 3829; email: jason.webb@marketnews.com

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