MNI: St. Louis Fed Model Sees 1M+ Jobs Added in December

U.S. hiring in December likely picked up strongly from a month earlier, according to the St. Louis Fed's analysis of real-time employment data from scheduling software company Homebase, showing a seasonally-adjusted rise of over 1 million jobs, economist Max Dvorkin told MNI on Thursday.

Since the survey was conducted mid-December, "it is likely that the effects of the new wave of Covid cases won't be reflected in the December jobs report," Dvorkin said.

In November, the model forecast a seasonally-adjusted gain of 537,000 jobs as measured by the BLS's household survey. The official payrolls figure based on the "establishment" survey of businesses came in at 210,000, though the household survey found employment surged by 1.1 million during the month.

The two surveys usually track closely but use different definitions of employment and technical factors.

In non-seasonally-adjusted terms, the Homebase model predicts an increase of 408,000 jobs in December, Dvorkin said.