-
Policy
Policy
Exclusive interviews with leading policymakers that convey the true policy message that impacts markets.
LATEST FROM POLICY: -
EM Policy
EM Policy
Exclusive interviews with leading policymakers that convey the true policy message that impacts markets.
LATEST FROM EM POLICY: -
G10 Markets
G10 Markets
Real-time insight on key fixed income and fx markets.
Launch MNI PodcastsFixed IncomeFI Markets AnalysisCentral Bank PreviewsFI PiFixed Income Technical AnalysisUS$ Credit Supply PipelineGilt Week AheadGlobal IssuanceEurozoneUKUSDeep DiveGlobal Issuance CalendarsEZ/UK Bond Auction CalendarEZ/UK T-bill Auction CalendarUS Treasury Auction CalendarPolitical RiskMNI Political Risk AnalysisMNI Political Risk - US Daily BriefMNI Political Risk - The week AheadElection Previews -
Emerging Markets
Emerging Markets
Real-time insight of emerging markets in CEMEA, Asia and LatAm region
-
Commodities
Commodities
Real-time insight of oil & gas markets
-
Credit
Credit
Real time insight of credit markets
-
Data
-
Global Macro
Global Macro
Actionable insight on monetary policy, balance sheet and inflation with focus on global issuance. Analysis on key political risk impacting the global markets.
Global MacroDM Central Bank PreviewsDM Central Bank ReviewsEM Central Bank PreviewsEM Central Bank ReviewsBalance Sheet AnalysisData AnalysisEurozone DataUK DataUS DataAPAC DataInflation InsightEmployment InsightGlobal IssuanceEurozoneUKUSDeep DiveGlobal Issuance Calendars EZ/UK Bond Auction Calendar EZ/UK T-bill Auction Calendar US Treasury Auction Calendar Chart Packs -
About Us
To read the full story
Sign up now for free trial access to this content.
Please enter your details below.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Real-time Actionable Insight
Get the latest on Central Bank Policy and FX & FI Markets to help inform both your strategic and tactical decision-making.
Free AccessMNI STATE OF PLAY: RBA Statement Might Strike A Positive Note
By Sophia Rodrigues
SYDNEY (MNI) - The Reserve Bank of Australia is likely to leave the cash
rate unchanged at 1.5% again at its meeting on Tuesday but solid second quarter
growth and a strong labor market could prompt a more positive tone in its
statement.
This could mean the market is still underpricing the risk the RBA might
raise the cash rate before the end of next year. Investors are pricing about a
40% chance of a 25bps hike by August 2019.
--KEY MESSAGE INTACT
The RBA is likely to retain its main message that it expects further
progress in reducing unemployment and returning inflation to target, and that
keeping monetary policy unchanged would be consistent with its mandate.
But GDP growth in the second quarter was better than the RBA's forecast,
making officials more optimistic about future expansion.
The RBA was also pleased with August labor market data published in
September, which was stronger all round although the jobless rate was unchanged
at 5.3%. Employment, the participation rate and full-time jobs all grew, and
underutilization fell. The RBA is already considering the prospect the
unemployment rate could fall to 5.0% earlier than it forecast in the August
Statement on Monetary Policy (SOMP), but may stop short of stating this in the
cash rate statement.
Labor market and growth forecasts will be updated in the November SOMP and
there's a likelihood of upgrades to both.
--GLOBAL INFLATION
The RBA's commentary on global inflation should also be worth watching, and
may be tweaked to suggest it could accelerate. Rising oil prices might attract a
reference too.
Commentary on global trade tensions and on China will likely remain
unchanged. Financial and economic emerging market risks might also be mentioned,
but none of these will affect the RBA's central scenario that gradual progress
in the economy should mean the next move in the cash rate is more likely to be
up, rather than down.
--OTHERS
Other parts of the statement should be little changed from September. The
RBA should reiterate that the average mortgage rate paid is lower than a year
ago and that conditions in Sydney and Melbourne housing markets have continued
to ease, reflecting its confidence that housing prices may not fall sharply.
With no fresh prices data in the past month, the commentary on inflation is
likely to remain unaltered.
The RBA might point to a household consumption rebound in the second
quarter but may also retain a reference to it as a source of uncertainty.
The rate decision is due at 1430 hours local time.
--MNI Sydney Bureau; tel: +61 2-9716-5467; email: sophia.rodrigues@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MMLRB$,M$A$$$,M$L$$$,MX$$$$]
To read the full story
Sign up now for free trial access to this content.
Please enter your details below.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.