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Free AccessMNI Survey: Table of RBA Cash Rate Forecasts
--JP Morgan Lone Dovish Forecast, See Two Cuts In First Half 2018
--Goldman Sachs Push Back Hike Forecast to Q1 2018, Join BofM-ML, HSBC
By Sophia Rodrigues
SYDNEY (MNI) - Goldman Sachs recently revised their forecast on the Reserve
Bank of Australia's cash rate and are now expecting a 25 basis point hike in the
first quarter of 2018 versus their previous forecast for a hike this November.
With this change, Goldman Sachs joins HSBC and Bank of America-Merrill Lynch as
the most hawkish economists with hike forecasts in Q1 of 2018.
Meanwhile, Nomura economist Andrew Ticehurst is no longer dovish on the
RBA, removing his forecast for a 25bp cut in Q1 2018 and now expecting the cash
rate to remain on hold in 2017 and 2018, with the first hike forecast in 2019.
JP Morgan economists are the only ones still forecasting a rate cut,
expecting two cuts in the first half of 2018. Their recent commentary suggests
their conviction for further cuts remains high, though the timing may be
uncertain.
Macquarie has forecast a 25bps cut in November but that is under review,
with the updated forecast likely to be published later this week. Macquarie
economist James McIntyre, who made the rate cut forecast, has left the
organization.
The RBA is due to announce its next rate decision on Tuesday, Sep. 5 at
2:30 pm local time/0430 GMT.
Below is a table of forecasts for the next RBA cash rate decision in
September and the outlook.
September Meeting Outlook
---------------------------------------------------------------------
NAB Hold Hold
ANZ Hold Hold. Not forecasting hike yet
Westpac Hold Hold 2017, 2018.
CBA Hold Hold
Goldman Sachs Hold 25bp hike in Feb. 2018
Citigroup Hold Hike in Q4 2018
JPMorgan Hold 50bp cut in first half 2018
HSBC Hold 25bp hike in Q1 2018
TD Securities Hold 25bp hike in May 2018
UBS Hold Hold; First hike in Q4 2018
Deutsche Bank Hold Hold 2017 and 2018
AMP Capital Hold Hold
Moody's Hold Hold
St. George Hold Hold
Macquarie Hold Under review
Nomura Hold Hike in 2019
RBC Capital Hold Hold through 2018
BankAm-ML Hold 25bp hike in Feb 2018
Morgan Stanley Hold On hold into 2019
Standard Chartered Hold Hold through 2017
Wells Fargo Hold Hold well into 2018
--MNI Sydney Bureau; tel: +61 2-9716-5467; email: sophia.rodrigues@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE,MMLRB$,M$A$$$,M$L$$$,MT$$$$]
To read the full story
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Please enter your details below.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.