MNI Table Of RBA Cash Rate Forecast;NAB Sees Hike In May 2019

By Sophia Rodrigues

     SYDNEY (MNI) - Economists at National Australia Bank have delayed the

timing of their expectation for the first hike in the Reserve Bank of

Australia's cash rate in this cycle to May 2019 from November this year.

     "The change reflects the fact there is no sign yet of stronger wages growth

and unemployment has been stuck around 5.5% for the best part of a year," NAB

chief economist Alan Oster wrote in a note Monday.

     "We still expect the economy to strengthen, leading to a declining

unemployment rate. This should eventually translate into stronger wages growth

and give the RBA confidence that inflation will track back to its 2.5% target,"

Oster said.

     "However, we acknowledge there is considerable uncertainty around the

timing at which wages growth will strengthen, and the time of the RBA's next

move will remain highly data dependent," he added.

     Below is a table of forecasts for the next RBA cash rate decision on June 5

and the outlook for the cash rate. The cash rate is currently at 1.5%.

                    June 5                                Outlook

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NAB                   Hold                25bps hike in May 2019.

ANZ                   Hold         Hold in 2018; Hike in mid-2019

Westpac               Hold                        Hold 2018, 2019

CBA                   Hold                    25bps hike Feb 2019

Goldman Sachs         Hold                      25bps hike in Nov

Citigroup             Hold                  25bps hike in Q1 2019

JP Morgan             Hold            Hold for foreseeable future

HSBC                  Hold                  25bps hike in Q2 2019

TD Securities         Hold                      25bps hike in Nov

UBS                   Hold                        Hike in 2H 2019

Deutsche Bank         Hold          2 hikes each in 2H 2019, 2020

AMP Capital           Hold                  Hike sometime in 2020

Moody's               Hold     Hold through 2018; Hike early 2019

St. George            Hold                  25bps hike in Q1 2019

Macquarie             Hold  25bps hike Q1 2019, 2.25% by end-2019

Nomura                Hold                      25bps hike in Nov

RBC Capital           Hold                      Hold through 2018

BankAm-ML             Hold                  25bp hike in May 2019

Morgan Stanley        Hold                     Hold until Q3 2019

Standard Chartered    Hold                           Hold in 2018

Wells Fargo           Hold                    Hold well into 2018

--MNI Sydney Bureau; tel: +61 2-9716-5467; email: sophia.rodrigues@marketnews.com

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