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Free AccessMNI BRIEF: China November PMI Rises Further Above 50
MNI US Macro Weekly: Politics To The Fore
MNI: UK Data F'casts Aug Public Sector Fin, UK Mortg Approvals
By Jamie Satchithanantham
LONDON (MNI) - UK public sector finances recorded a surplus of stg0.2bn in
July, the first July surplus in fifteen years, after a stg0.3bn shortfall last
July.
The surplus was courtesy of an increase in self-assessment income tax
receipts, but was flattered by timing effects. The deadline for tax returns
fell on a Sunday last year causing a spill over of receipts into August. That
means some form of payback this August will have materialised.
Alongside this, higher debt interest repayments, which will continue to
rise on the back of rising inflation (CPI and RPI rose to 2.9% and 3.9%
respectively in August) will persist in boosting borrowing levels seen this
financial year.
Borrowing is expected to come in at stg7.3bn in August, above the stg6.8bn
reading recorded last August.
------------------------------------
Aug
Public Finances-
PSNB ex
stg bn
Date Out 21-Sep
Median 7.3
Forecast High 7.9
Forecast Low 7.0
Standard Deviation 0.3
Count 10
Prior -0.2
Capital Economics 7.5
HSBC 7.9
Investec 7.8
Lloyds TSB 7.1
Morgan Stanley 7.0
Nomura 7.5
Oxford Economics 7.0
Pantheon 7.2
RBC 7.0
Societe Generale 7.3
Year-to-date borrowing is up 9% on the same period last year, a lot smaller
than the 29% increase projected for the 2017/18 financial year as a whole.
Though this trend is not expected to continue throughout the rest of the
financial year, revisions to OBR figures from last year could potentially reduce
the divergence to some extent.
Since the March Budget and the OBR's forecast for 2016/17 borrowing,
initially placed at stg52bn, the actual number has been revised down some 13% to
stg45.1bn.
Also due Thursday are the UK Finance (formerly BBA) UK mortgage approvals.
In recent months house price growth has lost pace while approvals have slipped
away from levels set last year as household grapple with squeezed incomes and
increased economic ambiguity.
Analysts do not think this dampened sentiment would have washed away in
August and pencil in approvals declining to 40.8k from 41.6k in July.
This would be consistent with the most recent RICS survey which saw its
measure of new buyer enquiries drop into negative territory for much of 2017. It
held firm at -4 in August.
--------------------------------------
Aug
UK Finance
Mortgage Approvals
'000s
Date Out 21-Sep
Median 40.8
Forecast High 42.4
Forecast Low 9.0
Standard Deviation 18.8
Count 3
Prior 41.6
Capital Economics 9.0
HSBC 42.4
Pantheon 40.8
--MNI London Bureau; +44 203-586-2226; email: jamie.satchithanantham@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE,MABDT$,M$B$$$,M$E$$$]
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.