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MNI UK Inflation and Labour Market Insight: Feb 2024 Release

UK DATA
  • We think the surprise in the wage data was significant. In our view, the majority of the MPC wants to see meaningful falls in wage data before voting for a first cut.
  • But CPI data was broadly in line with the Bank's forecasts - so despite both events being major market movers we place much more weight on this week’s labour market data in terms of swaying MPC timing.
  • We introduce our analysis of inflation breadth across UK CPI. This can help to illustrate how sticky the underlying components are within the inflation basket. On the headline basket, these show the problem is improving, but looking at services inflation it's still quite a concern.
  • After this week’s data we would reduce the MNI Markets' teams subjective estimates of probability of the first cut in May further to around 15%, now see a 30% probability of a first cut in June, a 40% probability of a first cut in August and a 15% probability of the first cut being delayed further.
  • We also summarise sell-side reviews of the inflation, labour market and GDP data releases.
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