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MNI UK Labour Market Insight: September 2024 Release

We analyze this week's UK labour market and GDP releases and round up sellside views.
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  • This week’s labour market was broadly in line with expectations while the activity data was disappointing across the board. Overall we think that these data will have little impact on any MPC member at the September meeting but we think the data will help to cement a November cut and increase the probability of a December cut (with that reaction broadly reflected in market pricing).
  • We continue to think that the most important part of the labour market report is the private regular wage growth. We look at this in more detail - on both yearly, momentum and the single month metrics.
  • We also look at other aspects of the labour market report such as the unemployment rate, economic activity rates and the claimant count.
  • Furthermore, we look at this morning's July monthly activity release.
  • Our analysis is complemented by a roundup of sellside views.

MNI (LONDON) - For the full document see: MNI UK Labour Insight - September 2024 Release.pdf

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  • This week’s labour market was broadly in line with expectations while the activity data was disappointing across the board. Overall we think that these data will have little impact on any MPC member at the September meeting but we think the data will help to cement a November cut and increase the probability of a December cut (with that reaction broadly reflected in market pricing).
  • We continue to think that the most important part of the labour market report is the private regular wage growth. We look at this in more detail - on both yearly, momentum and the single month metrics.
  • We also look at other aspects of the labour market report such as the unemployment rate, economic activity rates and the claimant count.
  • Furthermore, we look at this morning's July monthly activity release.
  • Our analysis is complemented by a roundup of sellside views.

MNI (LONDON) - For the full document see: MNI UK Labour Insight - September 2024 Release.pdf