MNI: UK Preliminary Data Forecasts - Nov 2 BOE MPC Minutes

By Jamie Satchithanantham

     LONDON (MNI) - The Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee will announce

its interest rate decision on 'Super Thursday' and is expected to hike for the

first time since July 2007. Of the 10 analysts surveyed by MNI, nine expect a 25

basis point hike to 0.50%.

     The minutes of the September meeting noted that "a majority" of MPC members

thought that in the "coming months" withdrawal of some stimulus would be

appropriate. Since then we have heard from a variety of MPC members including

Governor Carney, Gertjan Vlieghe and Silvana Tenreyro who agreed with this

assessment.

     One notable exception was new Deputy Governor David Ramsden who said he was

not in that majority, and there are others who are doubtful that tighter policy

is needed right now.

     It seems that while a hike, currently around 89% priced in according to MNI

PINCH, is on its way the vote will not be unanimous. The central forecast is for

a 7-2 split. The smaller the majority, the greater the doubts will be over

further tightening.

     Markets will be watching how the BoE communicates about future rate moves

and if it wants the market to price in another rise earlier than the August 2018

market pricing.

     The Bank will also update its economic forecasts in its latest inflation

report. Developments since August mean that changes are likely to be minimal,

but inflation forecasts could be revised up slightly after headline CPI hit the

highest levels since 2012 at the September print.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                           Nov             Nov              Nov              Nov

                           BOE             BOE              BOE              BOE

                    MPC Policy      MPC Policy       MPC Policy       MPC Policy

                      Decision        Decision         Decision         Decision

                                   Asset Purch

                   Bank Rate %         Stg bln       Unch. Vote        Hike Vote

Date Out                02-Nov          02-Nov           02-Nov           02-Nov

Median                    0.50          435.00             3.00             7.00

Forecast High             0.50           435.0              4.0              7.0

Forecast Low              0.25           435.0              2.0              5.0

Standard

Deviation                 0.08             0.0              3.8              1.2

Count                       10               6                4                3

Prior                     0.25           435.0              7.0              2.0

ABN Amro                  0.50             N/A              N/A              N/A

Bayern                    0.25             N/A              N/A              N/A

Capital

Economics                 0.50             N/A              4.0              5.0

HSBC                      0.50           435.0              N/A              N/A

Investec                  0.50           435.0              2.0              7.0

LBBW                      0.50           435.0              N/A              N/A

Nomura                    0.50           435.0              N/A              N/A

Oxford

Economics                 0.50           435.0              N/A              N/A

RBC                       0.50           435.0              2.0              7.0

UniCredit                 0.50             N/A              N/A              N/A

     This survey will be updated on Monday October 30.

--MNI London Bureau; +44 203-586-2226; email: jamie.satchithanantham@marketnews.com

--MNI London Bureau; +44 203 865 3809; email: kieran.williams@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE,MABDT$,M$B$$$,M$E$$$]