MNI: UK Preliminary Data Forecasts - October GfK, PMIs

By Jamie Satchithanantham

     LONDON (MNI) - UK Consumer Confidence is expected to take a dip in October,

the consensus of analysts surveyed by MNI is -10. The GfK metric rose to -9 in

September after hitting a post-Brexit low of -12 in July.

     The expected decline in the index is attributed to the erosion in real

wages as inflation continues to rise, with headline consumer price growth

hitting 3.0% in September.

     Up until early this year, retail sales volumes were resilient. The most

recent data, however, have been volatile. 

     The CBI Distributive Trades survey published Thursday last week showed

sales growth at the lowest since the global financial crisis. Elevated levels of

inflation were adduced for the sharp decline.

     Subdued house price growth could also have contributed to the expected drop

in consumer confidence. A Halifax's house price optimism index fell in October,

dropping to the lowest level in 5 years.

     Markit/CIPS purchasing manager indices for the manufacturing, services and

construction sectors are also slated for release. 

The preliminary October figures are expected to show a slight softening in

manufacturing and services, while construction is expected to stay in

contractionary territory.

     On Wednesday the manufacturing figure is released. The median consensus of

analysts surveyed by MNI is for 55.5 in October from 55.9 in September. The

headline number fell in September after two consecutive months of increase.

     Risks to the manufacturing figure are to the downside after the new orders

sub-component dipped in September.

     On Thursday, the construction figure is published. The construction PMI

dropped into contractionary territory in September for the first time since the

Brexit vote. Heightened political uncertainty was blamed for a sustained drop in

new work. 

     Both new orders and input buying fell in September and new business volumes

fell for the third consecutive month.

     Analysts surveyed expect a slight pick up to 48.5 from 48.1 in September.

     On Friday the services figure is released. The print is expected to reveal

a slight softening, the breakdown of the September data showed a drop in new

orders and employment, suggesting firms are gearing up for an abating in

activity.

     Analysts surveyed expect 53.1 in October from 53.6 in September.

     This survey will be updated on Monday October 30.

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                          Oct            Oct           Oct       Oct

                          GfK  Manufacturing  Construction  Services

                     Consumer            PMI           PMI       PMI

                    Sentiment          Index         Index     Index

Date Out               31-Oct          1-Nov         2-Nov     3-Nov

Median                 -10.00          55.50         48.50     53.10

Forecast High           -10.0           56.3          49.0      53.5

Forecast Low            -10.0           54.7          47.7      53.0

Standard Deviation        0.0            0.6           0.7       0.2

Count                       4              7             3         7

Prior                    -9.0           55.9          48.1      53.6

Capital Economics       -10.0           55.7           N/A      53.4

HSBC                    -10.0           56.3           N/A      53.0

Investec                -10.0           54.7           N/A      53.1

Nomura                    N/A           56.0           N/A      53.5

Oxford Economics        -10.0           55.5          49.0      53.0

RBC                       N/A           55.3          47.7      53.3

UniCredit                 N/A           55.0          48.5      53.0

--MNI London Bureau; +44 203-586-2226; email: jamie.satchithanantham@marketnews.com

--MNI London Bureau; +44 203 865 3809; email: kieran.williams@marketnews.com

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