MNI: UK Preliminary Data Survey - December Inflation

By Jamie Satchithanantham

     LONDON (MNI) - UK inflation is seen receding away from the

five-and-a-half-year high recorded in November and back to within the Bank of

England's inflation target remit according to a preliminary survey of analysts.

Core inflation is also seen easing by 0.1 percentage point to 2.6% while RPI is

seen unchanged at 3.9%.   

     Of particular focus will be air fares and sales of recreational goods,

which largely drove CPI hitting the highest level since March 2012 in November. 

------------------------------------------------------------

                       Dec     Dec       Dec     Dec     Dec

                       CPI     CPI  Core CPI     RPI     RPI

                     % MoM   % YoY     % YoY   % MoM   % YoY

Date Out            16-Jan  16-Jan    16-Jan  16-Jan  16-Jan

Median                 0.3     3.0       2.6     0.6     3.9

Forecast High          0.4     3.1       2.6     0.7     3.9

Forecast Low           0.2     2.9       2.4     0.5     3.8

Standard Deviation     0.1     0.1       0.1     0.1     0.1

Count                    4       7         3       4       4

Prior                  0.3     3.1       2.7     0.2     3.9

Capital Economics      0.2     2.9       2.4     0.6     3.9

Commerzbank            N/A     3.0       N/A     N/A     N/A

Investec               0.4     3.0       2.6     0.5     3.8

Nomura                 0.2     2.9       N/A     0.5     3.8

Nordea                 N/A     3.0       N/A     N/A     N/A

Oxford Economics       0.3     3.1       N/A     0.7     3.9

UniCredit              N/A     3.0       2.6     N/A     N/A

     Input PPI is expected to have abated in November, after a month of better

health for sterling, although elevated fuel prices may offset this.

     Input PPI is seen falling from 7.3% y/y to 5.0% y/y. Despite this, there is

not expected to be any pass through to Output PPI which is placed level with

November's 3.0% y/y showing.   

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                          Dec        Dec         Dec         Dec

                    PPI Input  PPI Input  PPI Output  PPI Output

                        % MoM      % YoY       % MoM       % YoY

Date Out               16-Jan     16-Jan      16-Jan      16-Jan

Median                    0.2        5.0         0.3         3.0

Forecast High             0.7        5.5         0.3         3.0

Forecast Low             -0.2        4.6         0.2         2.9

Standard Deviation        0.4        0.4         0.1         0.1

Count                       4          4           4           4

Prior                     1.8        7.3         0.3         3.0

Consensus                 0.7        5.5         0.2         2.9

Capital Economics         0.3        5.1         0.2         2.9

Investec                 -0.2        4.6         0.3         3.0

Nomura                    0.0        4.8         0.3         3.0

Oxford Economics          0.7        5.5         0.2         2.9

     This table will be updated Monday, January 15. 

--MNI London Bureau; +44 203-586-2226; email: jamie.satchithanantham@marketnews.com

--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2225; email: les.commons@marketnews.com

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