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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
MNI US CPI Preview, Sep'23: Limited Core Progress
MNI US CPI Preview, Sep'23: Limited Core Progress
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- Ex-food and energy (core) CPI is expected to print 0.3% M/M in September for the 2nd month in a row, still firmly higher than the unrounded 0.16% M/M readings in both June and July but well below 0.42% pace in the first 5 months of 2023.
- Headline CPI is expected to print 0.3% M/M, a deceleration from the energy-led jump up to 0.6% in August.
- A sharp decline in used car prices is seen keeping a lid on core goods prices, which are expected to deflate M/M once again. A large pullback in energy price inflation will keep overall headline and goods prices subdued.
- Core services inflation and “supercore” are seen higher than the overall core figure for another month. Housing is seen fairly steady, with owner equivalent rent (OER) ticking higher from August’s surprisingly low print but rents moderating slightly. Other areas of potential strength include auto insurance and lodging.
- Even in the case of an upside shock, this CPI report is unlikely to spur the FOMC to hike at the November meeting, and a December hike would probably require the October and November inflation prints to also show insufficient progress on inflation.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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