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MNI US CPI Preview: Upside Risk To Solid Core CPI Consensus

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

  • Core CPI inflation is seen slowing only moderately to 0.4% M/M after the surprise jump to 0.57% in August, and with analysts seeing some upside risk.
  • A large part of this expected relative slowing is from used car prices with underlying strength in core services expected to remain a key trend, especially in shelter before rent growth begins to cool.
  • With prior Fedspeak seeing no sign of inflation peaking and an u/e rate at historical lows, an extremely large miss is required to knock the Fed off course from a fourth 75bp hike on Nov 2 (74bp priced).
  • There are greater implications for Dec and Feb meetings, which currently show a broad scaling back to 50bp and 25bp hikes, along with current pricing of a rate cut in 2H23. A beat could see a bear flattening in Treasuries, helped by the notable resistance around 4% 10Y yields, and continued USD strength.

PLEASE FIND THE FULL REPORT HERE:

USCPIPrevOct2022.pdf


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