MNI BRIEF: BOJ To Mull Hikes If 2% Probability Rises - Ueda

MNI BRIEF: Case For ECB Cuts Strengthening, Accounts Show

MNI INTERVIEW2: Germany Faces Stagnation -Former Experts Chair

MNI BRIEF: Monetary, Fiscal Policy Need Harmony - Campos Neto

CORRECTED-MNI: Changing Brazil Fiscal Target Not "Plan A"

MNI BRIEF: PBOC To Curb Any Overshooting Of The Yuan-MPC

Plummeting Euro Core Factory Orders Cast Doubt On Recovery

MNI: EUROZONE FEB RETAIL SALES -0.5% M/M, -0.7% Y/Y

Retail Sales Unlikely To Improve Notably In The Months Ahead

MNI BRIEF: Poilievre Calls QE 'Scam' And Would Limit BOC Remit

MNI: Growth Drag From Net Zero Carbon Goal Can Be Offset-OECD

MNI BRIEF: Lawmakers Signal Tough Hearing For BOC's Macklem

© 1982-2023 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

MNI US CPI Preview: Upside Risk To Solid Core CPI Consensus

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

  • Core CPI inflation is seen slowing only moderately to 0.4% M/M after the surprise jump to 0.57% in August, and with analysts seeing some upside risk.
  • A large part of this expected relative slowing is from used car prices with underlying strength in core services expected to remain a key trend, especially in shelter before rent growth begins to cool.
  • With prior Fedspeak seeing no sign of inflation peaking and an u/e rate at historical lows, an extremely large miss is required to knock the Fed off course from a fourth 75bp hike on Nov 2 (74bp priced).
  • There are greater implications for Dec and Feb meetings, which currently show a broad scaling back to 50bp and 25bp hikes, along with current pricing of a rate cut in 2H23. A beat could see a bear flattening in Treasuries, helped by the notable resistance around 4% 10Y yields, and continued USD strength.

PLEASE FIND THE FULL REPORT HERE:

USCPIPrevOct2022.pdf


HomepageMarketsFOMC Calendar Market News
HomepageMarketsFOMC Calendar Market News

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.