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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Federal Reserve
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- Released tomorrow at 0830ET, consensus puts core CPI inflation at 0.3% M/M in January with mild risk seen to the downside, for a very similar reading to December after Friday’s annual revisions.
- Those revised seasonal factors plus new weights aren’t seen having a large impact in January but nevertheless add to some uncertainty.
- A broad theme is that service inflation could have strengthened with an offset from a large drag from used cars.
- There is a very wide range to analyst views for CPI supercore (from an admittedly small sample), but even the softest sees the three-month accelerate to 4.5% annualized.
- Fedspeak and strong data has near enough taken a March cut off the table and a first cut isn’t fully priced until June. A print consistent with another month of core PCE at target could take the wind out of this recent ramp higher in implied rates although we suspect softer labor data are really needed for markedly greater consideration of a nearer-term rate cut.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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