MNI: US Data Forecast Focus: August Payrolls Seen +195,000>

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - Nonfarm payrolls are forecast to rise by 195,000 

in August after a weaker-than-expected 157,000 rise in July. The           

unemployment rate is expected to fell further to 3.8% after dipping to  

3.9% in July. Hourly earnings are forecast to rise 0.2% after a 0.3%    

gain, while the average workweek is expected to hold steady at 34.5     

hours                                                                   

     Analysts overestimated payrolls in July after underestimates in May 

and June. The trend of misses to the high side could continue in August, 

as overestimates have been seen in each of the last seven years, nine of 

the last 10 years, and 19 of the last 20 years. 

Forecast:                  Mar-18  Apr-18  May-18  Jun-18  Jul-18  Aug-18

 Median                       195     185     194     195     190     195

 Range High                   250     255     217     212     207     230

 Range Low                    130     145     169     180     182     166

Actual original result        103     164     223     213     157    #N/A

 Median-Actual                 92      21     -29     -18      33    #N/A

Historical comparison:     Aug-12  Aug-13  Aug-14  Aug-15  Aug-16  Aug-17

 Median                       129     175     225     210     180     180

 Range High                   150     220     250     250     225     200

 Range Low                     70     150     195     170     153     160

Actual original result         96     169     142     173     151     156

 Median-Actual                 33       6      83      37      29      24

                           Mar-18  Apr-18  May-18  Jun-18  Jul-18  Aug-18

ISM Mfg Employment           57.3    54.2    56.3    56.0    56.5    58.5

ISM Nonmfg Employment        56.6    53.6    54.1    53.6    56.1    56.7

Conf Bd Jobs Plentiful       39.5    38.2    42.1    40.4    42.8    42.7

 Plentiful/Hard to Get Gap   23.8    22.7    26.5    25.3    28.0    30.0

Net change from survey week:

 Initial claims (Chg thsnd      9       6     -10      -5     -10       2

  4-week mvg avg               -2       7     -18       8    UNCH      -7

 Continuing claims            -46     -43     -92     -35      40     -37

Strikers (Net Chg thsnd)      1.4    -1.4    UNCH    UNCH     1.2    UNCH

ADP Emp Report (Chg thsnd)    198     170     196     178     217     163

--Kevin Kastner 202-371-2121; email: kevin.kastner@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]