MNI:US Data Forecast Focus:December CPI Seen +0.1%, Core +0.2%

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The CPI is expected to rise 0.1% in December following a

0.4% rise in November. Analysts expect energy prices to slip after October's

3.9% rebound due to gasoline prices. AAA reported a pull-back in mid-month

prices from November to December. Food prices are expected to post a modest

increase. The core CPI is forecast to rise 0.2% following a softer-than-expected

0.1% increase in October.

     Analysts correctly estimated CPI in both October and November, but core CPI

was overestimated. Misses in December have been mixed, but only rarely more than

0.1 percentage point. In the last 10 years, there have been five correct

estimates for overall CPI and seven correct estimates for core CPI, an

indication of how accurate forecast have been.

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                                  Jul-17  Aug-17  Sep-17  Oct-17  Nov-17  Dec-17

Overall CPI Forecast:

Median                               0.2     0.3     0.6     0.1     0.4     0.1

Range High                           0.2     0.4     0.7     0.2     0.5     0.2

Range Low                            0.1     0.2     0.5     0.0     0.3     0.0

Actual result                        0.1     0.4     0.5     0.1     0.4    #N/A

vs median forecast                   0.1    -0.1     0.1     0.0     0.0    #N/A

Historical comparison:            Dec-11  Dec-12  Dec-13  Dec-14  Dec-15  Dec-16

Median                               0.1     0.0     0.3    -0.4     0.0     0.3

Range High                           0.2     0.1     0.4    -0.2     0.1     0.4

Range Low                           -0.1    -0.1     0.1    -0.5    -0.2     0.2

Actual result                        0.0     0.0     0.3    -0.4    -0.1     0.3

vs median forecast                   0.1     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.1     0.0

                                  Jul-17  Aug-17  Sep-17  Oct-17  Nov-17  Dec-17

Core CPI Forecast:

Median                               0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2

Range High                           0.2     0.2     0.2     0.3     0.2     0.3

Range Low                            0.1     0.1     0.1     0.1     0.2     0.1

Actual result                        0.1     0.2     0.1     0.2     0.1    #N/A

vs median forecast                   0.1     0.0     0.1     0.0     0.1    #N/A

Historical comparison:            Dec-11  Dec-12  Dec-13  Dec-14  Dec-15  Dec-16

Median                               0.1     0.1     0.1     0.1     0.2     0.2

Range High                           0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.3

Range Low                            0.0     0.1     0.1    -0.1     0.1     0.1

Actual result                        0.1     0.1     0.1     0.0     0.1     0.2

vs median forecast                   0.0     0.0     0.0     0.1     0.1     0.0

Change in:

                                          Aug-17  Sep-17  Oct-17  Nov-17  Dec-17

AAA Self-serve Reg Unleaded

($/gal)                                    2.351   2.661   2.485   2.561   2.456

mo/mo pct change                            #N/A    13.2    -6.6     3.1    -4.1

ISM Mfg Index Price Index                   62.0    71.5    68.5    65.5    69.0

ISM Nonmfg Index Price Index                57.9    66.3    62.7    60.7    60.8

--MNI Washington Bureau; tel: +1 202-371-2121; email: kevin.kastner@marketnews.com

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