MNI: US Data Forecast Focus: February Indust Prod Seen +0.4%>

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - Industrial production is expected to rise 0.4% 

in February after a 0.1% decline in the previous month, with 

manufacturing production expected to post a modest increase. Factory 

payrolls rose by 31,000 in February, while auto production jobs rose by 

6,000 and the factory workweek lengthened to 41.0 hours from 40.8 hours 

in January. The ISM production index fell to 62.0 in the current month 

from 64.5 in the previous month. Utilities production is expected to 

slip in the month after a 0.6% January gain, as the weather was warmer 

than usual across most of the US. Mining production is forecast to 

finally advance after posting declines in the previous two months 

despite a rising rig  count in January. Capacity utilization is forecast 

to rise to 77.8% from 77.5% in January. 

     Analysts sharply overestimated industrial production in January as 

the utilities gain was smaller than expected, mining production fell, 

and manufacturing was flat. Recent February misses have tended toward 

overestimates, including the most recent three years, so there is some 

risk of another weak print. 

Industrial Production:     Sep-17  Oct-17  Nov-17  Dec-17  Jan-18  Feb-18

Forecast:

 Median                       0.2     0.5     0.3     0.5     0.2     0.4

 High                         0.8     1.0     0.8     0.9     0.3     0.8

 Low                         -0.9     0.3     0.0     0.1    -0.3     0.0

Actual result                 0.3     0.9     0.2     0.9    -0.1    #N/A

 vs median forecast          -0.1    -0.4     0.1    -0.4     0.3    #N/A

Historical Comparison:     Feb-12  Feb-13  Feb-14  Feb-15  Feb-16  Feb-17

 Median                       0.5     0.4     0.1     0.3    -0.3     0.2

 High                         1.0     0.9     0.5     0.5    -0.1     0.6

 Low                          0.2    -0.1     0.0    -0.1    -0.8     0.0

Actual result                 0.0     0.7     0.6     0.1    -0.5     0.0

 vs median forecast           0.5    -0.3    -0.5     0.2     0.2     0.2

Capacity Utilization:      Sep-17  Oct-17  Nov-17  Dec-17  Jan-18  Feb-18

Forecast:

 Median                      76.2    76.3    77.2    77.3    78.0    77.8

 High                        76.6    76.9    77.5    77.3    78.4    78.1

 Low                         75.4    76.2    77.1    77.2    77.0    77.4

Actual result                76.0    77.0    77.1    77.9    77.5    #N/A

 vs median forecast           0.2    -0.7     0.1    -0.6     0.5    #N/A

Historical Comparison:     Feb-12  Feb-13  Feb-14  Feb-15  Feb-16  Feb-17

 Median                      78.8    79.4    78.6    79.6    76.8    75.5

 High                        79.1    79.6    78.7    79.7    76.9    75.8

 Low                         76.0    77.6    78.4    79.3    76.5    75.2

Actual result                78.7    79.6    78.8    78.9    76.7    75.4

 vs median forecast           0.1    -0.2    -0.2     0.7     0.1     0.1

                           Sep-17  Oct-17  Nov-17  Dec-17  Jan-18  Feb-18

NA-Made Motor Vehicle Sale   14.2    13.8    13.3    13.6    12.8    12.8

Mfg Agg Hrs Index % chg      -0.2     0.7     0.2     0.1     0.2     0.6

Factory Jobs (000's)            6      20      30      39      25      31

 Auto Prod Jobs (000's)        -2      -2       3       3       1       6

Mining Jobs (000's)            -1       2       4       1       6       9

Levels:

  ISM Mfg PMI                60.2    58.5    58.2    59.3    59.1    60.8

  ISM Mfg Production         61.9    61.0    64.3    65.2    64.5    62.0

  Phila. Fed Index           25.8    28.8    24.3    27.9    22.2    25.8

  Empire State Index         23.8    28.1    20.9    19.6    17.7    13.1

  Chicago PMI                64.3    65.4    65.6    67.8    65.7    61.9

  Factory Workweek           40.7    40.9    40.9    40.8    40.8    41.0

  Factory Overtime            3.4     3.5     3.5     3.5     3.5     3.6

--Kevin Kastner 202-371-2121; email:kkastner@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]