MNI: US Data Forecast Focus: February Indust Prod Seen +0.4%>

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - Industrial production is expected to rebound by 

0.4% in February after a 0.6% decline in January, with a number of 

negative signs for manufacturing production after January's decline. 

Factory payrolls rose by only 4,000 in February, with auto production 

jobs up 1,000, while the factory workweek contracted further to 40.7 

hours from 40.8 hours in January. 

     The ISM production index fell to 54.8 in the current month from 

60.5 in the previous month. Utilities production is expected to surge on 

harsh weather in the month after a modest 0.4% rise in January, while 

mining production is expected to continue its upward path. Capacity 

utilization is forecast to rise to 78.5% after falling to 78.2% in 

January. 

     Analysts sharply overestimated industrial production in January, 

as motor vehicle production fell sharply. Historical data point strongly 

to the chance of another overestimate for this month's release.

Industrial Production:     Sep-18  Oct-18  Nov-18  Dec-18  Jan-19  Feb-19

Forecast:

 Median                       0.2     0.1     0.5     0.1     0.2     0.4

 High                         0.6     0.3     0.7     0.4     0.2     1.1

 Low                          0.1    -0.4     0.3    -0.5    -0.2     0.0

Actual result                 0.3     0.1     0.6     0.3    -0.6    #N/A

 Median-Actual               -0.1     0.0    -0.1    -0.2     0.8    #N/A

Historical Comparison:     Feb-13  Feb-14  Feb-15  Feb-16  Feb-17  Feb-18

 Median                       0.4     0.1     0.3    -0.3     0.2     0.4

 High                         0.9     0.5     0.5    -0.1     0.6     0.8

 Low                         -0.1     0.0    -0.1    -0.8     0.0     0.0

Actual result                 0.7     0.6     0.1    -0.5     0.0     1.1

 Median-Actual               -0.3    -0.5     0.2     0.2     0.2    -0.7

Capacity Utilization:      Sep-18  Oct-18  Nov-18  Dec-18  Jan-19  Feb-19

Forecast:

 Median                      78.2    78.1    78.7    78.4    78.8    78.5

 High                        78.3    78.3    78.8    78.7    78.8    79.0

 Low                         78.0    77.9    78.5    78.3    78.4    78.0

Actual result                78.1    78.4    78.5    78.7    78.2    #N/A

 Median-Actual                0.1    -0.3     0.2    -0.3     0.6    #N/A

Historical Comparison:     Feb-13  Feb-14  Feb-15  Feb-16  Feb-17  Feb-18

 Median                      79.4    78.6    79.6    76.8    75.5    77.8

 High                        79.6    78.7    79.7    76.9    75.8    78.1

 Low                         77.6    78.4    79.3    76.5    75.2    77.4

Actual result                79.6    78.8    78.9    76.7    75.4    78.1

 Median-Actual               -0.2    -0.2     0.7     0.1     0.1    -0.3

                           Sep-18  Oct-18  Nov-18  Dec-18  Jan-19  Feb-19

NA-Made Veh Sales Ex. GM,     7.8     7.6     7.4     7.6     7.1     7.1

Mfg Agg Hrs Index % chg      -0.1     0.0     0.2     0.3     0.0    -0.2

Factory Jobs (000's)           18      29      27      20      21       4

 Auto Prod Jobs (000's)         3       7      -2       1       0       1

Mining Jobs (000's)             4       6      -3       4       6      -3

Levels:

  ISM Mfg PMI                59.5    57.5    58.8    54.3    56.6    54.2

  ISM Mfg Production         63.1    59.3    59.9    54.1    60.5    54.8

  Phila. Fed Index           21.4    19.7    11.9     9.1    17.0    -4.1

  Empire State Index         18.8    20.0    21.4    11.5     3.9     8.8

  Chicago PMI                61.5    59.4    63.5    63.8    56.7    64.7

  Factory Workweek           40.9    40.8    40.8    40.9    40.8    40.7

  Factory Overtime            3.5     3.5     3.5     3.6     3.5     3.5

--Kevin Kastner 202-371-2121; email:kkastner@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]