MNI: US Data Forecast Focus: February Payrolls Seen +183,000>

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - Nonfarm payrolls are forecast to rise by 183,000 

in February after a much stronger-than-expected 304,000 rise in January. 

Analysts will watch closely for any revision to the January payrolls 

spike, but the ADP report released Wednesday casts undercertainty on the 

possibility of a downward revision. 

     Analysts sharply underestimated payrolls growth in both December 

and January, and have missed to the low side in each of the last seven 

years, so there is a strong chance of an upside surprise. 

     The unemployment rate is expected to fall slightly to 3.9% after 

rising to 4.0% in the previous month. Hourly earnings are forecast to 

rise 0.3%, while the average workweek is expected to stay at 34.5 hours 

for another month. 

Forecast:                  Sep-18  Oct-18  Nov-18  Dec-18  Jan-19  Feb-19

 Median                       188     190     190     180     167     183

 Range High                   220     231     220     200     190     220

 Range Low                    163     160     140     166     135     141

Actual original result        134     250     155     312     304    #N/A

 Median-Actual                 54     -60      35    -132    -137    #N/A

Historical comparison:     Feb-13  Feb-14  Feb-15  Feb-16  Feb-17  Feb-18

 Median                       160     150     245     195     200     210

 Range High                   225     180     250     240     250     250

 Range Low                    125     115     200     165     165     175

Actual original result        236     175     295     242     235     313

 Median-Actual                -76     -25     -50     -47     -35    -103

                           Sep-18  Oct-18  Nov-18  Dec-18  Jan-19  Feb-19

ISM Mfg Employment           58.2    56.5    57.7    56.0    55.5    52.3

ISM Nonmfg Employment        60.4    58.3    58.0    56.6    57.8    55.2

Conf Bd Jobs Plentiful       44.1    45.4    46.8    45.5    46.7    46.1

 Plentiful/Hard to Get Gap   30.0    32.0    34.2    33.3    34.1    34.3

Net change from survey week:

 Initial claims (Chg thsnd     -8       8      15      -8      -5       5

  4-week mvg avg               -8       6       7       4      -2      16

 Continuing claims            -47     -25      67       3       5      91

Strikers (Net Chg thsnd)     UNCH     2.0     2.1    -4.1    UNCH    -1.2

ADP Emp Report (Chg thsnd)    199     238     136     249     300     183

--Kevin Kastner 202-371-2121; email: kevin.kastner@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]