MNI: US Data Forecast Focus: February Sales Seen +0.4%>

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - Retail sales are forecast to rise 0.4% in 

February after a weaker-than-expected 0.3% decline in January. 

Seasonally adjusted industry motor vehicle sales were mildly weaker in 

February, but should not fall as sharply as in January. AAA reported 

that gasoline prices rose further in mid-February from one month 

earlier, but prices could decline after seasonal adjustment. Retail 

sales are expected to rise 0.5% excluding motor vehicles after January's 

flat reading, led by gains in most categories. The overestimates in 

January may lead to analysts aiming too low for the February data.  

     Analysts sharply overestimated retail sales growth in January, both 

overall and excluding motor vehicles. Misses for past February data have 

been sharply tilted toward underestimates, so a larger-than-expected 

rebound is possible. 

                         Sep-17  Oct-17  Nov-17  Dec-17  Jan-18  Feb-18

Retail Sales forecast:

 Median                     1.9     0.0     0.3     0.4     0.2     0.4

 Range High                 2.7     0.4     0.5     0.7     0.3     0.5

 Range Low                  1.4    -0.3     0.1     0.2    -0.2     0.1

Actual result               1.6     0.2     0.8     0.4    -0.3    #N/A

 vs median forecast:        0.3    -0.2    -0.5     0.0     0.5    #N/A

Historical comparison:   Feb-12  Feb-13  Feb-14  Feb-15  Feb-16  Feb-17

 Median                     1.1     0.5     0.2     0.3    -0.2     0.1

 Range High                 2.1     1.0     0.4     0.4    -0.1     0.2

 Range Low                  0.4    -0.5    -0.1     0.1    -0.7    -0.1

Actual result               1.1     1.1     0.3    -0.6    -0.1     0.1

 vs median forecast:        0.0    -0.6    -0.1     0.9    -0.1     0.0

                         Sep-17  Oct-17  Nov-17  Dec-17  Jan-18  Feb-18

Retail ex-autos Forecast:

 Median                     0.9     0.2     0.7     0.3     0.5     0.5

 Range High                 1.9     0.4     0.9     0.6     0.8     0.7

 Range Low                  0.7    -0.1     0.3     0.1     0.0     0.3

Actual result:              1.0     0.1     1.0     0.4     0.0    #N/A

 vs median forecast:       -0.1     0.1    -0.3    -0.1     0.5    #N/A

Historical comparison:   Feb-12  Feb-13  Feb-14  Feb-15  Feb-16  Feb-17

 Median                     0.7     0.5     0.1     0.5    -0.3     0.2

 Range High                 1.5     1.0     0.3     0.7    -0.1     0.2

 Range Low                  0.3    -0.7    -0.2     0.3    -0.7     0.1

Actual result               0.9     1.0     0.3    -0.1    -0.1     0.2

 vs median forecast:       -0.2    -0.5    -0.2     0.6    -0.2     0.0

                                 Oct-17  Nov-17  Dec-17  Jan-18  Feb-18

NA-Made Car Sales, mln units, sa    4.4     4.3     4.1     3.8     3.9

NA-MadeTruck Sales, mln units, s    9.4     9.0     9.5     9.0     8.9

AAA gasoline prices ($/gal)       2.485   2.561   2.456   2.491   2.570

 mo/mo pct change                 #N/A      3.1    -4.1     1.4     3.2

Consumer confidence               126.2   128.6   123.1   124.3   130.8

Conf Bd Buying Plans Next 6 mo:*

 Automobile                        14.0    13.3    13.0    13.6    12.9

 Home                               6.4     6.5     7.4     6.0     6.3

 Major appliance                   48.8    53.4    59.3    50.1    52.5

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* Respondents answering "yes"

--Kevin Kastner 202-371-2121; email: kkastner@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]