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Free AccessMNI: US Data Forecast Focus: February Sales Seen +0.4%>
WASHINGTON (MNI) - Retail sales are forecast to rise 0.4% in
February after a weaker-than-expected 0.3% decline in January.
Seasonally adjusted industry motor vehicle sales were mildly weaker in
February, but should not fall as sharply as in January. AAA reported
that gasoline prices rose further in mid-February from one month
earlier, but prices could decline after seasonal adjustment. Retail
sales are expected to rise 0.5% excluding motor vehicles after January's
flat reading, led by gains in most categories. The overestimates in
January may lead to analysts aiming too low for the February data.
Analysts sharply overestimated retail sales growth in January, both
overall and excluding motor vehicles. Misses for past February data have
been sharply tilted toward underestimates, so a larger-than-expected
rebound is possible.
Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18
Retail Sales forecast:
Median 1.9 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.4
Range High 2.7 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.3 0.5
Range Low 1.4 -0.3 0.1 0.2 -0.2 0.1
Actual result 1.6 0.2 0.8 0.4 -0.3 #N/A
vs median forecast: 0.3 -0.2 -0.5 0.0 0.5 #N/A
Historical comparison: Feb-12 Feb-13 Feb-14 Feb-15 Feb-16 Feb-17
Median 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.3 -0.2 0.1
Range High 2.1 1.0 0.4 0.4 -0.1 0.2
Range Low 0.4 -0.5 -0.1 0.1 -0.7 -0.1
Actual result 1.1 1.1 0.3 -0.6 -0.1 0.1
vs median forecast: 0.0 -0.6 -0.1 0.9 -0.1 0.0
Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18
Retail ex-autos Forecast:
Median 0.9 0.2 0.7 0.3 0.5 0.5
Range High 1.9 0.4 0.9 0.6 0.8 0.7
Range Low 0.7 -0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.3
Actual result: 1.0 0.1 1.0 0.4 0.0 #N/A
vs median forecast: -0.1 0.1 -0.3 -0.1 0.5 #N/A
Historical comparison: Feb-12 Feb-13 Feb-14 Feb-15 Feb-16 Feb-17
Median 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.5 -0.3 0.2
Range High 1.5 1.0 0.3 0.7 -0.1 0.2
Range Low 0.3 -0.7 -0.2 0.3 -0.7 0.1
Actual result 0.9 1.0 0.3 -0.1 -0.1 0.2
vs median forecast: -0.2 -0.5 -0.2 0.6 -0.2 0.0
Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18
NA-Made Car Sales, mln units, sa 4.4 4.3 4.1 3.8 3.9
NA-MadeTruck Sales, mln units, s 9.4 9.0 9.5 9.0 8.9
AAA gasoline prices ($/gal) 2.485 2.561 2.456 2.491 2.570
mo/mo pct change #N/A 3.1 -4.1 1.4 3.2
Consumer confidence 126.2 128.6 123.1 124.3 130.8
Conf Bd Buying Plans Next 6 mo:*
Automobile 14.0 13.3 13.0 13.6 12.9
Home 6.4 6.5 7.4 6.0 6.3
Major appliance 48.8 53.4 59.3 50.1 52.5
--
* Respondents answering "yes"
--Kevin Kastner 202-371-2121; email: kkastner@mni-news.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]
To read the full story
Sign up now for free trial access to this content.
Please enter your details below.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.