MNI:US Data Forecast Focus:January Industrial Prod Seen +0.2%

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - Industrial production is expected to rise only 0.2% in

January after a 0.9% spike in the previous month, even as manufacturing posted

only a modest 0.1% December increase. Factory payrolls rose by 15,000 in

January, while auto production jobs rose by 3,000, but the factory workweek was

slipped by 0.2 hours to 40.6 hours and will likely drag down manufacturing

production. The ISM production index fell to a still strong 64.5 in the current

month from 65.2 in the previous month. Utilities production is expected to

decline in the month after a 5.6% December gain, but mining production is

forecast to rise further. Capacity utilization is forecast to rise modestly to

78.0% from 77.9% in December.

     Analysts sharply underestimated industrial production in December as

utilities surged on a return to more normal weather. Mining production was also

up solidly, but manufacturing production managed only a modest gain. Recent

January misses have tended toward overestimate, so that trend matched with a

likely pullback from the outsized December increase could me a disappointing

January print.

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Industrial Production:           Aug-17  Sep-17  Oct-17  Nov-17  Dec-17  Jan-18

Forecast:

Median                              0.1     0.2     0.5     0.3     0.5     0.2

High                                0.5     0.8     1.0     0.8     0.9     0.3

Low                                -1.3    -0.9     0.3     0.0     0.1    -0.3

Actual result                      -0.9     0.3     0.9     0.2     0.9    #N/A

vs median forecast                  1.0    -0.1    -0.4     0.1    -0.4    #N/A

Historical Comparison:           Jan-12  Jan-13  Jan-14  Jan-15  Jan-16  Jan-17

Median                              0.8     0.1     0.2     0.4     0.4     0.9

High                                1.0     0.6     0.6     0.9     0.7     1.2

Low                                 0.3    -0.3     0.0     0.1    -0.3     0.5

Actual result                       0.0    -0.1    -0.3     0.2     0.9     0.8

vs median forecast                  0.8     0.2     0.5     0.2    -0.5     0.1

Capacity Utilization:            Aug-17  Sep-17  Oct-17  Nov-17  Dec-17  Jan-18

Forecast:

Median                             76.8    76.2    76.3    77.2    77.3    78.0

High                               77.0    76.6    76.9    77.5    77.3    78.4

Low                                75.6    75.4    76.2    77.1    77.2    77.0

Actual result                      76.1    76.0    77.0    77.1    77.9    #N/A

vs median forecast                  0.7     0.2    -0.7     0.1    -0.6    #N/A

Historical Comparison:           Jan-12  Jan-13  Jan-14  Jan-15  Jan-16  Jan-17

Median                             78.6    78.8    79.3    79.9    76.7    75.6

High                               79.0    79.3    79.6    80.2    77.0    76.1

Low                                78.0    78.5    79.1    79.7    76.4    75.4

Actual result                      78.5    78.8    78.5    79.4    77.1    75.5

vs median forecast                  0.1     0.0     0.8     0.5    -0.4     0.1

                                 Aug-17  Sep-17  Oct-17  Nov-17  Dec-17  Jan-18

NA-Made Motor Vehicle Sales        12.3    14.2    13.8    13.3    13.6    12.8

Mfg Agg Hrs Index % chg            -0.1    -0.2     0.7     0.2    -0.1    -0.3

Factory Jobs (000's)                 39       6      20      30      21      15

Auto Prod Jobs (000's)               23      -2      -2       3       2       0

Mining Jobs (000's)                   9      -1       2       4       1       5

Levels:

ISM Mfg PMI                        59.3    60.2    58.5    58.2    59.3    59.1

ISM Mfg Production                 62.0    61.9    61.0    64.3    65.2    64.5

Phila. Fed Index                   22.1    25.8    28.8    24.3    27.9    22.2

Empire State Index                 24.2    23.8    28.1    20.9    19.6    17.7

Chicago PMI                        59.5    64.3    65.4    65.6    67.8    65.7

Factory Workweek                   40.8    40.7    40.9    40.9    40.8    40.6

Factory Overtime                    3.4     3.4     3.5     3.5     3.5     3.5

--MNI Washington Bureau; tel: +1 202-371-2121; email: kevin.kastner@marketnews.com

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