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MNI: US Data Forecast Focus: June CPI Seen +0.2%, Core +0.2%>

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The CPI is expected to rise 0.2% for a third 
straight month in June. The year/year rates should stabilize after 
moving higher in May. AAA reported another modest gain in mid-month 
prices from May, which could support a further increase in CPI gasoline 
prices, while food prices are seen adding modestly. The core CPI is 
forecast to also rise 0.2% following an as-expected 0.2% increase in 
May, with the relatively large housing categories holding steady.  
     Analysts correctly esstimated both overall and core CPI in May, in 
line with the normal high level of accuracy for CPI. The forecast 
history for June CPI suggest no clear survey risk, since analysts 
miss only half the time, and by only 0.1 percentage point when they do.
                             Jan-18  Feb-18  Mar-18  Apr-18  May-18  Jun-18
Overall CPI Forecast:
 Median                         0.3     0.2     0.0     0.3     0.2     0.2
 Range High                     0.5     0.3     0.1     0.3     0.3     0.2
 Range Low                      0.2     0.1    -0.1     0.2     0.1     0.1
Actual result                   0.5     0.2    -0.1     0.2     0.2    #N/A
 Median-Actual                 -0.2     0.0     0.1     0.1     0.0    #N/A
Historical comparison:       Jun-12  Jun-13  Jun-14  Jun-15  Jun-16  Jun-17
 Median                         0.1     0.4     0.3     0.3     0.3     0.0
 Range High                     0.2     0.6     0.4     0.4     0.3     0.2
 Range Low                     -0.3     0.2     0.2     0.3     0.2     0.0
Actual result                   0.0     0.5     0.3     0.3     0.2     0.0
 Median-Actual                  0.1    -0.1     0.0     0.0     0.1     0.0
                             Jan-18  Feb-18  Mar-18  Apr-18  May-18  Jun-18
Core CPI Forecast:
 Median                         0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2
 Range High                     0.3     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2
 Range Low                      0.1     0.1     0.1     0.2     0.1     0.2
Actual result                   0.3     0.2     0.2     0.1     0.2     #N/A
 Median-Actual                 -0.1     0.0     0.0     0.1     0.0     #N/A
Historical comparison:       Jun-12  Jun-13  Jun-14  Jun-15  Jun-16  Jun-17
 Median                         0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2
 Range High                     0.2     0.4     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.3
 Range Low                      0.1     0.1     0.1     0.1     0.1     0.1
Actual result                   0.2     0.2     0.1     0.2     0.2     0.1
 Median-Actual                  0.0     0.0     0.1     0.0     0.0     0.1
Change in:
                                     Feb-18  Mar-18  Apr-18  May-18  Jun-18
AAA Self-serve Reg Unleaded ($/gal)   2.570   2.523   2.658   2.813   2.915
  mo/mo pct change                      #N/A   -1.8     5.4     5.8     3.6
ISM Mfg Index Price Index              74.2    78.1    79.3    79.5    76.8
ISM Nonmfg Index Price Index           61.0    61.5    61.8    64.3    60.7
--Kevin Kastner 202-371-2121; email:kkastner@mni-news.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]

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