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Free AccessMNI: US Data Forecast Focus: November Final Dmd PPI Seen +0.3%
WASHINGTON (MNI) - Final demand PPI is expected to rise 0.3% in November
after 0.4% increases in the previous two months. Energy prices are expected to
rise after a flat October reading, while food prices are expected to temper a
bit after 0.5% gain. Excluding food and energy prices, PPI is forecast to rise
0.2% after an above-expectation 0.4% increase in the previous month that was led
by a 1.1% jump in trade services prices. Excluding trade services as well as
food and energy, PPI is expected to post a modest gain.
Analysts sharply underestimated final demand PPI in October, as food and
trade services prices surged to offset a flat reading for energy prices. The
misses in the last 10 November releases have been about evenly distributed, with
four overestimates and six underestimates, including the most recent two years.
Likewise for core PPI, which was underestimated in October, and and posted
underestimates in the most recent two November releases. There were four correct
estimates in the last 10 years and only two overestimates, so another upside
surprise is possible.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17
Overall PPI Forecast:
Median 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.3
Range High 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.5
Range Low -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.2
Actual result 0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 #N/A
vs median forecast -0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.3 #N/A
Historical Comparison Nov-11 Nov-12 Nov-13 Nov-14 Nov-15 Nov-16
Median 0.2 -0.5 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.2
Range High 0.6 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.3
Range Low -0.3 -0.9 -0.2 -0.4 -0.3 0.1
Actual result 0.3 -0.8 -0.1 -0.2 0.3 0.4
vs median forecast -0.1 0.3 0.1 0.1 -0.3 -0.2
Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17
Core PPI Forecast:
Median 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
Range High 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2
Range Low 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
Actual result 0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.4 0.4 #N/A
vs median forecast 0.0 0.3 0.1 -0.2 -0.2 #N/A
Historical comparison: Nov-11 Nov-12 Nov-13 Nov-14 Nov-15 Nov-16
Median 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2
Range High 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
Range Low 0.0 -0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1
Actual result 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.4
less median forecast 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 -0.2 -0.2
NOTE: From Jan. 2014
forward, forecast data are
for Final Demand PPI and
Core
Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17
USDA Farm Prices Rec'd Index
(% chg) -2.9 -2.0 -1.7 -5.2 #N/A
ISM Mfg Index Price Index 62.0 62.0 71.5 68.5 65.5
ISM Nonmfg Index Price Index 55.7 57.9 66.3 62.7 60.7
--MNI Washington Bureau; tel: +1 202-371-2121; email: kevin.kastner@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE,M$U$$$]
To read the full story
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.