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MNI: US Data Forecast Focus: November Sales Seen Only +0.1%>

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - Retail sales are forecast to rise only 0.1% in 
November  after a stronger than expected 0.8% gain in October. Not 
seasonally adjusted industry motor vehicle sales slipped in November, 
while AAA reported that gasoline prices fell sharply in mid-November 
from one month earlier. Retail sales are expected to also rise 0.1% 
excluding motor vehicles after a 0.7% jump in October. 
     Analysts sharply umderestimated November sales as both gasoline and 
motor vehicle sales posted solid gains that are likely to be reversed in 
October. Recent misses in past Novembers suggest a slight chance of 
another underestimate, but the forecast risk is not entirely clear. 
                         Jun-18  Jul-18  Aug-18  Sep-18  Oct-18  Nov-18
Retail Sales forecast:
 Median                     0.6     0.1     0.4     0.6     0.5     0.1
 Range High                 0.8     0.5     0.5     0.8     0.9     0.6
 Range Low                  0.5    -0.4     0.3     0.5     0.2    -0.2
Actual result               0.5     0.5     0.1     0.1     0.8    #N/A
 Median-Actual              0.1    -0.4     0.3     0.5    -0.3    #N/A
Historical comparison:   Nov-12  Nov-13  Nov-14  Nov-15  Nov-16  Nov-17
 Median                     0.5     0.6     0.4     0.3     0.4     0.3
 Range High                 1.0     1.1     0.6     0.0     0.5     0.5
 Range Low                 -0.2     0.3     0.0     0.4     0.1     0.1
Actual result               0.3     0.7     0.7     0.2     0.1     0.8
 Median-Actual              0.2    -0.1    -0.3     0.1     0.3    -0.5
                         Jun-18  Jul-18  Aug-18  Sep-18  Oct-18  Nov-18
Retail ex-autos Forecast:
 Median                     0.3     0.4     0.5     0.4     0.5     0.1
 Range High                 0.5     0.5     0.7     0.7     0.8     0.5
 Range Low                  0.2     0.0     0.3     0.2     0.2    -0.2
Actual result:              0.4     0.6     0.3    -0.1     0.7    #N/A
 Median-Actual             -0.1    -0.2     0.2     0.5    -0.2    #N/A
Historical comparison:   Nov-12  Nov-13  Nov-14  Nov-15  Nov-16  Nov-17
 Median                     0.0     0.2     0.0     0.3     0.4     0.7
 Range High                 0.5     0.5     0.3     0.4     0.5     0.9
 Range Low                 -1.0     0.0    -0.2     0.1     0.2     0.3
Actual result               0.0     0.4     0.5     0.4     0.2     1.0
 Median-Actual              0.0    -0.2    -0.5    -0.1     0.2    -0.3
                                 Jul-18  Aug-18  Sep-18  Oct-18  Nov-18
NA-Made Car Sales, mln units, saar  3.0     2.9     3.0     3.2     2.9
NA-MadeTruck Sales, mln units, saar 6.9     7.2     7.2     6.9     6.9
*Vehicle Sales Do Not Include GM
AAA gasoline prices ($/gal)       2.862   2.857   2.843   2.911   2.686
 mo/mo pct change                 #N/A     -0.2    -0.5     2.4    -7.7
Consumer confidence               127.9   134.7   135.3   137.9   135.7
Conf Bd Buying Plans Next 6 mo:*
 Automobile                        11.1    13.0    13.7    14.0    13.8
 Home                               5.4     6.3     6.2     6.4     6.4
 Major appliance                   47.8    53.6    52.9    53.8    54.0
--
* Respondents answering "yes"
--Kevin Kastner 202-371-2121; email: kkastner@mni-news.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]

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