MNI:US Data Forecast Focus:October Final Demand PPI Seen +0.3%

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - Final demand PPI is expected to rise 0.3% in October

after a 0.2% September increase, showing some impact from Hurricane Michael on

food and energy prices. Energy prices are expected to post a rebound following a

0.8% September decrease, while food prices are expected to tick up after a

further 0.6% decline. Excluding food and energy prices, PPI is forecast to rise

0.2% after a 0.2% September increase.

     Analysts correctly estimated both overall and core PPI in September. The

misses in the last ten October reports have been tilted toward overestimates for

both the overall and core data, suggesting a downside risk.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                                  May-18  Jun-18  Jul-18  Aug-18  Sep-18  Oct-18

Overall PPI Forecast:

Median                               0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.3

Range High                           0.4     0.3     0.3     0.5     0.3     0.4

Range Low                            0.1     0.2     0.1     0.1     0.0     0.2

Actual result                        0.5     0.3     0.0    -0.1     0.2    #N/A

Median-Actual                       -0.3    -0.1     0.2     0.3     0.0    #N/A

Historical Comparison             Oct-12  Oct-13  Oct-14  Oct-15  Oct-16  Oct-17

Median                               0.1    -0.2    -0.1     0.2     0.3     0.1

Range High                           0.5     0.1     0.1     0.3     0.4     0.3

Range Low                           -0.2    -0.3    -0.3    -0.1     0.2     0.0

Actual result                       -0.2    -0.2     0.2    -0.4     0.0     0.4

Median-Actual                        0.3     0.0    -0.3     0.6     0.3    -0.3

                                  May-18  Jun-18  Jul-18  Aug-18  Sep-18  Oct-18

Core PPI Forecast:

Median                               0.2     0.3     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2

Range High                           0.3     0.3     0.3     0.3     0.3     0.3

Range Low                            0.2     0.2     0.2     0.1     0.1     0.1

Actual result                        0.3     0.3     0.1    -0.1     0.2    #N/A

Median-Actual                       -0.1     0.0     0.1     0.3     0.0    #N/A

Historical comparison:            Oct-12  Oct-13  Oct-14  Oct-15  Oct-16  Oct-17

Median                               0.1     0.1     0.1     0.1     0.2     0.2

Range High                           0.3     0.1     0.2     0.4     0.3     0.2

Range Low                           -0.5     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.1     0.1

Actual result                       -0.2     0.2     0.4    -0.3    -0.2     0.4

Median-Actual                        0.3    -0.1    -0.3     0.4     0.4    -0.2

NOTE: From Jan. 2014

forward, forecast data are

for Final Demand PPI and

Core

                                          Jun-18  Jul-18  Aug-18  Sep-18  Oct-18

ISM Mfg Index Price Index                   76.8    73.2    72.1    66.9    71.6

ISM Nonmfg Index Price Index                60.7    63.4    62.8    64.2    61.7

--MNI Washington Bureau; tel: +1 202-371-2121; email: kevin.kastner@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE,M$U$$$]