MNI: US Data Forecast Focus: October Final Dmd PPI Seen +0.1%>

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - Final demand PPI is expected to rise 0.1% in 

October after a 0.4% increase in the previous month. Energy prices are 

expected to decline after solid gains in the previous two months, while 

food prices are expected to be roughly flat. Excluding food and energy 

prices, PPI is forecast to rise 0.2% after an above-expectation 0.4% 

increase in the previous month that was led by a 0.8% jump in trade 

services prices. 

     Analysts correctly estimated final demand PPI in September, but 

underestimated the growth in PPI due to a sharp rise in trade services 

prices. The misses in the last 10 October releases have been tilted 

toward the high side, with eight overestimates, one underestimate, and 

one correct estimate. The same is true for core PPI, which showed seven 

overestimates and three underestimates. 

                         May-17  Jun-17  Jul-17  Aug-17  Sep-17  Oct-17

Overall PPI Forecast:

 Median                     0.0     0.0     0.2     0.3     0.4     0.1

 Range High                 0.5     0.1     0.3     0.4     0.6     0.3

 Range Low                 -0.3    -0.1     0.0     0.1     0.2     0.0

Actual result               0.0     0.1    -0.1     0.2     0.4    #N/A

 vs median forecast         0.0    -0.1     0.3     0.1     0.0    #N/A

Historical Comparison    Oct-11  Oct-12  Oct-13  Oct-14  Oct-15  Oct-16

 Median                    -0.1     0.1    -0.2    -0.1     0.2     0.3

 Range High                 0.4     0.5     0.1     0.1     0.3     0.4

 Range Low                 -0.4    -0.2    -0.3    -0.3    -0.1     0.2

Actual result              -0.3    -0.2    -0.2     0.2    -0.4     0.0

 vs median forecast         0.2     0.3     0.0    -0.3     0.6     0.3

                         May-17  Jun-17  Jul-17  Aug-17  Sep-17  Oct-17

Core PPI Forecast:

 Median                     0.2     0.1     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2

 Range High                 0.2     0.2     0.3     0.2     0.3     0.2

 Range Low                 -0.2     0.1     0.1     0.0     0.1     0.1

Actual result               0.3     0.1    -0.1     0.1     0.4    #N/A

 vs median forecast        -0.1     0.0     0.3     0.1    -0.2    #N/A

Historical comparison:   Oct-11  Oct-12  Oct-13  Oct-14  Oct-15  Oct-16

 Median                     0.1     0.1     0.1     0.1     0.1     0.2

 Range High                 0.3     0.3     0.1     0.2     0.4     0.3

 Range Low                 -0.2    -0.5     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.1

Actual result               0.0    -0.2     0.2     0.4    -0.3    -0.2

 less median forecast       0.1     0.3    -0.1    -0.3     0.4     0.4

NOTE: From Jan. 2014 forward, forecast data are for Final Demand PPI and Core

                                    Jun-17  Jul-17  Aug-17  Sep-17  Oct-17

USDA Farm Prices Rec'd Index (% chg)  -0.1    -2.9    -2.0    -1.7    #N/A

ISM Mfg Index Price Index             55.0    62.0    62.0    71.5    68.5

ISM Nonmfg Index Price Index          52.1    55.7    57.9    66.3    62.7

--Kevin Kastner 202-371-2121; email:kkastner@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]