MNI: US Data Forecast Focus: October Payrolls Seen +190,000>

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - Nonfarm payrolls are forecast to rise by 190,000 

in October after a much weaker-than-expected rise of 134,000 in 

September that was partially due to effects from Hurricane Florence. 

This month's data could be strongly impacted by the effects of Hurricane 

Michael, which hit land on October 10 in the middle of the survey week, 

so there is downside risk to forecasts. The unemployment rate is 

expected to hold steady at 3.7%. Hourly earnings are forecast to rise 

0.2% after solid gains in the previous three months, while the average 

workweek is expected to hold steady at 34.5 hours for another month, but 

could show the impact of Hurricane Michael. The year/year rate for 

hourly earnings dipped to 2.8% in September but is likely to rebound in 

October on base effects from a 0.2% monthly decline in earnings in 

October 2017. 

     Analysts sharply overestimated payrolls in September after a small 

underestimate in August. Overestimates in six of the last 10 years and 

each of the last two years for the October reports suggest another 

downside disappointment is possible for this month. 

Forecast:                  May-18  Jun-18  Jul-18  Aug-18  Sep-18  Oct-18

 Median                       194     195     190     195     188     190

 Range High                   217     212     207     230     220     231

 Range Low                    169     180     182     166     163     160

Actual original result        223     213     157     201     134      NA

 Median-Actual                -29     -18      33      -6      54      NA

Historical comparison:     Oct-12  Oct-13  Oct-14  Oct-15  Oct-16  Oct-17

 Median                       125     120     240     175     175     315

 Range High                   150     195     275     240     205     350

 Range Low                     90      70     195     150     160     200

Actual original result        171     204     214     271     161     261

 Median-Actual                -46     -84      26     -96      14      54

                           May-18  Jun-18  Jul-18  Aug-18  Sep-18  Oct-18

ISM Mfg Employment           56.3    56.0    56.5    58.5    58.8    56.8

ISM Nonmfg Employment        54.1    53.6    56.1    56.7    62.4      NA

Conf Bd Jobs Plentiful       42.1    40.4    42.8    42.3    44.1    45.9

 Plentiful/Hard to Get Gap   26.5    25.3    28.0    30.2    30.0    32.7

Net change from survey week:

 Initial claims (Chg thsnd    -10      -5     -10       2      -8       8

  4-week mvg avg              -18       8    UNCH      -7      -8       6

 Continuing claims            -92     -35      40     -37     -47     -25

Strikers (Net Chg thsnd)     UNCH    UNCH     1.2    UNCH    UNCH     2.0

ADP Emp Report (Chg thsnd)    196     178     211     162     218     227

--Kevin Kastner 202-371-2121; email: kevin.kastner@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]