MNI: US Data Forecast Focus: October Sales Seen +0.5% On Gas>

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - Retail sales are forecast to rise 0.5% in 

October after a weaker than expected 0.1% gain in September. Not 

seasonally adjusted industry motor vehicle sales improved modestly in 

October, while AAA reported that gasoline prices rose slightly in 

mid-October from one month earlier. Motor vehicle sales should pick up 

further in the South as part of the hurricane recovery. Retail sales are 

expected to be up 0.5% excluding motor vehicles after a 0.1% decline in 

September. 

     Analysts sharply overerestimated retail sales growth in both August 

and September, with a declne in food services and drinking place the 

culprit in the most recent month. Underestimates in recent October 

releases could end this trend, but the impact of Hurricane Michael could 

lead to another weak number. 

                         May-18  Jun-18  Jul-18  Aug-18  Sep-18  Oct-18

Retail Sales forecast:

 Median                     0.4     0.6     0.1     0.4     0.6     0.5

 Range High                 0.6     0.8     0.5     0.5     0.8     0.9

 Range Low                  0.0     0.5    -0.4     0.3     0.5     0.2

Actual result               0.8     0.5     0.5     0.1     0.1    #N/A

 Median-Actual             -0.4     0.1    -0.4     0.3     0.5    #N/A

Historical comparison:   Oct-12  Oct-13  Oct-14  Oct-15  Oct-16  Oct-17

 Median                    -0.2     0.0     0.2     0.3     0.6     0.0

 Range High                 0.3     0.4     0.7     0.5     0.7     0.4

 Range Low                 -0.5    -0.1    -0.2     0.2     0.5    -0.3

Actual result              -0.3     0.4     0.3     0.1     0.8     0.2

 Median-Actual              0.1    -0.4    -0.1     0.2    -0.2    -0.2

                         May-18  Jun-18  Jul-18  Aug-18  Sep-18  Oct-18

Retail ex-autos Forecast:

 Median                     0.5     0.3     0.4     0.5     0.4     0.5

 Range High                 0.6     0.5     0.5     0.7     0.7     0.8

 Range Low                  0.2     0.2     0.0     0.3     0.2     0.2

Actual result:              0.9     0.4     0.6     0.3    -0.1    #N/A

 Median-Actual             -0.4    -0.1    -0.2     0.2     0.5    #N/A

Historical comparison:   Oct-12  Oct-13  Oct-14  Oct-15  Oct-16  Oct-17

 Median                     0.2     0.0     0.2     0.4     0.5     0.2

 Range High                 0.6     0.3     0.5     0.6     0.8     0.4

 Range Low                 -0.3    -0.4     0.0    -0.1     0.4    -0.1

Actual result               0.0     0.2     0.3     0.2     0.8     0.1

 Median-Actual              0.2    -0.2    -0.1     0.2    -0.3     0.1

                                 Jun-18  Jul-18  Aug-18  Sep-18  Oct-18

NA-Made Car Sales, mln units, sa    3.1     3.0     2.9     3.0     3.2

NA-MadeTruck Sales, mln units, s    7.2     6.9     7.2     7.2     6.9

*Vehicle Sales Do Not Include GM

AAA gasoline prices ($/gal)       2.915   2.862   2.857   2.843   2.911

 mo/mo pct change                 #N/A     -1.8    -0.2    -0.5     2.4

Consumer confidence               127.1   127.9   134.7   135.3   137.9

Conf Bd Buying Plans Next 6 mo:*

 Automobile                        10.9    11.1    13.0    13.7    13.8

 Home                               6.1     5.4     6.3     6.2     6.4

 Major appliance                   49.7    47.8    53.6    52.9    52.4

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* Respondents answering "yes"

--Kevin Kastner 202-371-2121; email: kevin.kastner@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]