MNI US Data Preview: August Retail Seen +0.2%, Ex-Auto +0.1%

By Alexandra Kelley

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - U.S. retail sales growth is expected to soften in August

to a 0.2% increase from 0.7% in July. Retail sales excluding motor vehicles

mirrors this forecast, showing an expected 0.1% increase following a 1% rate in

July.

     Analysts believe these modest gains are the result of abnormally high

Amazon Prime Day spikes that occurred from July 15th to 16th.

With high consumer sentiment despite tariff fears, retail sales have a healthy

forecast in the months ahead. Auto purchases are expected to be major drivers of

sales growth, offsetting weakness in construction and building materials amid

discouraging home sales.

     Retail trade job numbers have also been steady, undercutting the notion of

a major slowdown in store sales. Additionally, jobless claims data released on

Thursday came in lower than anticipated at 203,000, indicating a low probability

of layoffs that would hurt consumer spending power.

     Paul Ashworth of Capital Economics cited consistent wage growth, a steady

job market, and a low unemployment rate as indicators of positive retail sales.

He said sales excluding motor vehicles, gas, and food services is likely to

remain strong at the 0.2%-0.3%. That "control group" is more closely tied to

GDP, he said.

--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202 371 2121; email: alexandra.kelley@marketnews.com