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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- Core CPI inflation was in line with expectations in November as it accelerated to 0.285% M/M from 0.23%.
- “Supercore” CPI meanwhile accelerated to a strong 0.44% M/M, close to what some analysts had expected but nevertheless cementing uncomfortable run rates at 5.2% and 3.7% annualized over 3- and 6-months.
- With rent inflation also accelerating more than expected, there was a clear split between stronger services and softer goods inflation, with non-used car prices seeing the sharpest decline since Apr’20.
- However, the composition of the report has seen analysts tilt towards further moderation in core PCE in November, with estimates seen averaging 0.13% M/M after 0.16% in Oct (to be revised post-PPI today).
- Chair Powell hasn’t really highlighted the supercore metric since September, with this latest CPI report giving him the opportunity to skew hawkish if he wants to re-emphasize it.
- The combination of the solid supercore print overall core running well above target, and the unexpected dip in the unemployment rate in the past week certainly gives the FOMC reason to wait at least one more meeting to change its forward guidance. The market currently has a Dec’24 rate 85bps lower than the 2024 dot from Sept.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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