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Free AccessMNI US Morning Fixed Income Technical Analysis
By Les Castell
Click below for today's MNI US Morning FI Technical Analysis Report -
http://tinyurl.com/h8pyhnq
US 5YR FUTURE TECHS: (U17) 117-295 Support The Key To Any Continued Recovery
*RES 4: 118-247/267 Jun 14 high, Median line Mar & May lows
*RES 3: 118-140/145 Jun 26 high, 76.4% of 118-247/117-132
*RES 2: 118-095/097 Jul 24, Jul 21 highs
*RES 1: 118-072 Jul 26 high
*PRICE: 118-042 @0958GMT
*SUP 1: 117-295/302 Hourly support, Jul 28 low
*SUP 2: 117-265/270 Jul 25 low, initial rally high Jul 13
*SUP 3: 117-235 Jul 13 low
*SUP 4: 117-200 76.4% Fibo of 117-132/118-097
*COMMENTARY* Found support from the upper end of the 117-265/117-200 support
band, before seeing a decent rebound, which moved slightly above 118-060. So
far, this has been short lived but the near term recovery bias stays intact
while any pullbacks can hold above 117-295. Main resistance however, remains
from last months 118-095/097 highs, these the bar to a 118-140/145 rise. Loss of
117-295 will caution and put 117-265 under pressure again.
US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (U17) 126-020/126-065 In Way Of Renewed Upside Push
*RES 4: 126-215 76.4% Fibo of 127-080/124-255
*RES 3: 126-115/120 Jun 19 low, Jul 21 high
*RES 2: 126-065 Jul 25 high
*RES 1: 126-020 Jul 26 high
*PRICE: 125-285 @1001GMT
*SUP 1: 125-175 Jul 28 low
*SUP 2: 125-155 Jul 25 low
*SUP 3: 125-125/130 Congestion area Jul 12-13
*SUP 4: 125-085 Jul 13 low
*COMMENTARY* The fall was held at 125-155 last week, a sharp rally then
producing a 126-020 bounce so far. Will need to see gains back above 126-065
however, before the near term bias will return to higher again and refocus on
the 126-115/126-120 area. Support in the meantime, rises to 125-175/125-155 and
ideally this now withstands any pressure if the recovery has not been in vain.
Loss will disappoint now.
US 30YR FUTURE TECHS: (U17) 152-03 Support Survives A Double Testing
*RES 4: 155-02 61.8% of 157-08/151-18
*RES 3: 154-31 Jul 21 high, 1% volatility band
*RES 2: 154-11 Jul 25 high
*RES 1: 153-21 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: 153-04 @1004GMT
*SUP 1: 152-03 Jul 27-28 lows
*SUP 2: 151-28 Jul 13 low, 1% volatility band
*SUP 3: 151-18 Jul 7 low
*SUP 4: 151-08 76.4% Fibo of 149-00/157-08
*COMMENTARY* Unable to break above the 61.8% Fibo retrace level at 155-02, a
high of 154-31 seen before falling foul of some overbought conditions. This has
been exacerbated by the loss of 153-11 support, a further fall to test and break
the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at 152-12 already seen. 152-03 is currently the
protection against a 151-28/151-18 return. In the interim, 153-21 and then more
importantly 154-11 provide resistance.
US EURODOLLAR TECHS: (Z17) 98.515 Still Provides Key Near Term Support
*RES 4: 98.630 Jun 14 high
*RES 3: 98.610 Jun 6 high
*RES 2: 98.580/590 Congestion lows May 19-Jun 8, Jun 16 high
*RES 1: 98.560/565 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: 98.545 @1010GMT
*SUP 1: 98.515 Initial recovery high Jul 6, now support
*SUP 2: 98.495 Jul 6 low, 50% of 98.335-98.655
*SUP 3: 98.470 Apr 23 low
*SUP 4: 98.455 61.8% Fibo of 98.335-98.655
*COMMENTARY* Found support from the 50% Fibo retrace level at 98.495 earlier
last month, a recovery has reached the base of the 98.580-98.590 resistance
area. As a result, has become overbought in the near term and now giving back
some of those gains. In this respect, look to 98.515 for support and protection
against a return of the previous downtrend and 98.495 again. Resistance now from
98.560-98.565 ahead of 98.580-98.590 again.
--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.