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MNI US Morning Fixed Income Technical Analysis

By Les Castell
     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FI Technical Analysis Report -
http://tinyurl.com/h8pyhnq
US 5YR FUTURE TECHS: (U17) Key 118-140/118-145 Resistance Broken Briefly
*RES 4: 119-012 Median line drawn off Mar & May lows
*RES 3: 118-247 Jun 14 high
*RES 2: 118-197 Jun 6 high
*RES 1: 118-157 Aug 9 high
*PRICE: 118-115 @1113GMT
*SUP 1: 118-090 Aug 7 high, now support
*SUP 2: 118-055/065 Hourly support
*SUP 3: 118-035 Aug 4 low
*SUP 4: 118-010 Aug 1 low
*COMMENTARY* Wednesday saw a spike above key 118-140/118-145 resistance. A peak
of 118-157 seen before once again slipping back into a more familiar range. This
action has seen the appearance of a potentially bearish 'shooting star' candle
close on the daily chart. A failure to increase gains through 118-157 will
concern. Support comes from 118-090 and then of more consequence from 118-065
and especially 118-035. Clearance of 118-157 and look to 118-197/118-247.
US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (U17) Rally Supported By 11 Day Rising Support Line
*RES 4: 127-080 Jun 26 high
*RES 3: 126-290 Jun 26 high
*RES 2: 126-215 76.4% Fibo of 127-080/124-255
*RES 1: 126-185 Aug 9 high
*PRICE: 126-120 @1121GMT
*SUP 1: 125-320 11 day rising support line
*SUP 2: 125-290 Aug 4 low
*SUP 3: 125-215 Aug 1 low
*SUP 4: 125-155 Jul 25 low
*COMMENTARY* Again, after seeing a fresh rise to 126-185 on Wednesday, the
appearance of a 'shooting star' candle at the day's close is a concern. Will
need a move above here to negate the potentially bearish consequences and then
concentrate on a challenge to the key 76.4% Fibo retrace level at 126-215 next.
Support comes from the 11 day rising support line at 125-320, loss here will
also weaken upside argument and suggest a deeper correction is due.
US 30YR FUTURE TECHS: (U17) 155-10 Remains An Upside Adversary
*RES 4: 157-08 Jun 26 high
*RES 3: 155-29 76.4% Fibo of 157-08/151-18 
*RES 2: 155-21 1% volatility band
*RES 1: 155-10 Aug 4 high
*PRICE: 154-23 @1130GMT
*SUP 1: 153-30 Hourly support
*SUP 2: 153-16/17 Jul 31 high, Aug 2, Aug 8 lows
*SUP 3: 153-10 61.8% Fibo of 152-03/155-10
*SUP 4: 152-24/29 Congestion area Jul 28-Aug 1, 76.4% Fibo
*COMMENTARY* Rally was tempered at 155-10 last week by the upper 1% volatility
band, at the slightly higher 155-21 level today. The subsequent fall has now
reached 153-16/153-17 but stronger support is anticipated from 153-10 initially
and then the congested 152-29/152-24 area. Will need to lose the latter before
more important support from 152-09/152-03 comes under the spotlight. Meanwhile,
above 155-10/155-21 and the 76.4% Fibo at 155-29 is next attraction.
     US EURODOLLAR TECHS: (Z17) 98.515 Still Provides Key Near Term Support
*RES 4: 98.630 Jun 14 high
*RES 3: 98.610 Jun 6 high
*RES 2: 98.580/590 Congestion lows May 19-Jun 8, Jun 16 high
*RES 1: 98.560/565 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: 98.550 @1132GMT
*SUP 1: 98.515 Initial recovery high Jul 6, now support
*SUP 2: 98.495 Jul 6 low, 50% of 98.335-98.655
*SUP 3: 98.470 Apr 23 low
*SUP 4: 98.455 61.8% Fibo of 98.335-98.655
*COMMENTARY* Found support from the 50% Fibo retrace level at 98.495 earlier
last month, a recovery has reached the base of the 98.580-98.590 resistance
area. As a result, has become overbought in the near term and now giving back
some of those gains. In this respect, look to 98.515 for support and protection
against a return of the previous downtrend and 98.495 again. Resistance now from
98.560-98.565 ahead of 98.580-98.590 again.
--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]

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