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AUSSIE BONDS

RBA Guidance And Market Pricing Further Diverge

US TSYS

TYZ1 Holds Most Of Friday's Gains

RATINGS

Positive Tweaks On A Couple Of Outlooks On Friday

AUSSIE 3-YEAR TECHS

(Z1) Sell-Off Abates

By Les Castell
     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FI Technical Analysis Report -
http://tinyurl.com/h8pyhnq
US 5YR FUTURE TECHS: (U17) Fresh Rise Challenges 118-310/118-320 Resistance
*RES 4: 119-120 Median line off Mar & May lows
*RES 3: 119-025 50% Fibo of 121-215/116-155
*RES 2: 119-005 7 week bull channel top projection
*RES 1: 118-310/320 Apr 17, May 18 highs
*PRICE: 118-285 @1050GMT
*SUP 1: 118-227 Aug 18 high, now support
*SUP 2: 118-205 Aug 23 high, now support
*SUP 3: 118-157/160 Hourly congestion area Aug 24-28
*SUP 4: 118-132/135 Aug 23, Aug 25 lows
*COMMENTARY* The break through 118-247 switched the overall bias back to the
topside again and has been followed by a renewed challenge to the Apr/May highs
at 118-310/118-320. Above here and the 7 week bull channel top projection at
119-005 and the 50% Fibo retrace at 119-025 can be prohibitors to near term
gains. In the interim, support rises to two former highs between 118-227 and
118-205. Currently only a loss of 118-157 would suggest some caution.
     
US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (U17) Breaks Out Of 5 Week Bull Channel
*RES 4: 128-125 Median line off Mar and May lows
*RES 3: 128-105 61.8% Fibo of 131-235/122-145
*RES 2: 127-315 1% volatility band
*RES 1: 127-190 Intraday high
*PRICE: 127-125 @1107GMT
*SUP 1: 127-015 Aug 18 high, now support
*SUP 2: 126-305 Aug 23 high, now support
*SUP 3: 126-245 Hourly congestion Aug 24-28
*SUP 4: 126-160 Aug 23 low
*COMMENTARY* The move back above 127-015 has rejuvenated the topside and seen a
break above the Jun 14 high at 127-080 and also the 5 week bull channel top. A
high of 127-190 so far today, with the upper 1% volatility band at 127-315 the
next barrier above. Only through here will allow a look at dual Fibo resistance
situated between 128-105/128-110. As a result, support comes initially from two
previous 127-015 and 126-305 highs, with 126-245 more of a concern below.
     
US 30YR FUTURE TECHS: (U17) 157-27 Break Allows A 158-17/158-31 Rise Next
*RES 4: 161-19/21 50% Fibo of 177-11/145-26, Oct 28 low
*RES 3: 158-31 2% volatility band
*RES 2: 158-17 6 week bull channel top projection
*RES 1: 158-04 Intraday high
*PRICE: 157-16 @1135GMT
*SUP 1: 157-05/12 Hourly support
*SUP 2: 156-24 Aug 25 high, now support
*SUP 3: 156-05 Aug 28 low
*SUP 4: 155-29 Aug 11 high, Aug 25 low
*COMMENTARY* Has broken through 157-08/157-27 resistance, a high of 158-04, as
we head towards the 6 week bull channel top projection at 158-17. Above here and
the upper 2% volatility band is running at the higher 158-31 level today. In the
meantime, support also rises, 157-12/157-05 initially, the Aug 25 high at 156-24
a stronger level below. Above 158-31 and because of the steep fall last Nov 10,
there is not much currently showing ahead of 161-19/161-21.
     US EURODOLLAR TECHS: (Z17) Rally Brings 98.610-98.630 Resistance To The
Fore
*RES 4: 98.680 May 30 2016 low, now resistance
*RES 3: 98.655 May 18 high
*RES 2: 98.630 Jun 14 high
*RES 1: 98.610 Jun 6 high
*PRICE: 98.595 @1147GMT
*SUP 1: 98.555 Aug 25 low
*SUP 2: 98.535 Congestion area Jul 27-Aug 17
*SUP 3: 98.520 Jul 25, Jul 26 lows
*SUP 4: 98.495 Jul 6 low, 50% Fibo of 98.335-98.655
*COMMENTARY* After weeks of consolidation we have seen a break above
98.580-98.590 resistance. This should allow some further progression, as we claw
back losses from the May 18 high at 98.655. Next up is the Jun 6 high at 98.610
and then the Jun 14 high at 98.630. Back above the latter required however,
before the near term bias will switch from corrective to favour the topside
again. Support rises to 98.555 initially and then backed up by 98.535-98.520.
--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]