MNI US Morning Fixed Income Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FI Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/h8pyhnq

US 5YR FUTURE TECHS: (Z17) 117-037 Becomes Pivotal To Any Recovery Hopes

*RES 4: 117-137 Oct 19 high

*RES 3: 117-072 Oct 24 high

*RES 2: 117-037 Oct 6 low, Oct 26 high

*RES 1: 117-015 Oct 23 low, now resistance

*PRICE: 116-285 @1110GMT

*SUP 1: 116-252 Intraday low

*SUP 2: 116-175 Dec 15 low

*SUP 3: 116-155 Mar 10 low

*SUP 4: 115-307 1% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* Continued pressure has seen both the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at

117-020 and the Mar 17 low at 116-295 give way. A low of 116-252 at the time of

writing, after the topside was curtailed by the 117-037 level on Thursday. Has

again become oversold on a near term basis, this time 117-015 provides the

immediate barrier but 117-037 remains the key to any corrective/recovery

potential. Below 116-252 and not much to prevent eventual 116-175/116-155 fall.

US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (Z17) 124-265/125-015 Still The Bar To Continued Recovery 

*RES 4: 125-255 Oct 13 high

*RES 3: 125-160 Oct 19 high

*RES 2: 125-005/015 Oct 24 high, Oct 18 low

*RES 1: 124-265 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: 124-130 @1115GMT

*SUP 1: 124-060/065 Oct 25, Mar 29 lows

*SUP 2: 123-235 76.4% Fibo of 122-145/127-285

*SUP 3: 123-205 1% volatility band

*SUP 4: 123-115 Mar 17 low

*COMMENTARY* Downside interest continued Wednesday, resulting in a challenge to

the Mar 29 low at 124-065. That push lower resulted in some near term oversold

conditions and the scope for some recovery. This however, will need to break

back above 124-265/125-015 before any real upside impetus will be forthcoming

and allow some greater correction of recent losses from the Oct 13 high at

125-255. Loss of 124-060 will disappoint and open up 124-235/125-205 next.

US 30YR FUTURE TECHS: (Z17) May 11 Low At 150-07 Becomes Pivotal Support

*RES 4: 153-10 Oct 17 low, now resistance

*RES 3: 152-20/25 Oct 23 high, Oct 18 low

*RES 2: 152-07/10 Congestion area Oct 20-24

*RES 1: 151-22/25 Oct 26 high, Oct 20 low

*PRICE: 150-24 @1125GMT

*SUP 1: 150-07/14 May 11 low, 2017 bull channel base proj'n

*SUP 2: 149-07 2% volatility band

*SUP 3: 148-24 76.4% Fibo of 145-26/158-09

*SUP 4: 147-14/15 Mar 16-17 lows

*COMMENTARY* Following the failure to reclaim levels above 151-25 on Thurday,

the downside push has continued, most latterly in a dip to 150-10 today, just

below the 2017 bull channel base projection at 150-14 but for the time being

still above the May 11 low at 150-07. Will need to hold here to avoid the

eventuality of a deeper fall towards the lower 2% volatility band and perhaps

the 76.4% Fibo level at 148-24. Back above 151-22/151-25 can provide relief.

     US EURODOLLAR TECHS: (Z17) 98.510-98.525 In The Way Of Any Recovery Hopes

*RES 4: 98.580 Sep 14 high

*RES 3: 98.555 Aug 25 low, now resistance

*RES 2: 98.525 Sep 25, Sep 28 highs

*RES 1: 98.510 Oct 13 high

*PRICE: 98.485 @1128GMT

*SUP 1: 98.470 Apr 24, Oct 6 lows

*SUP 2: 98.455 61.8% Fibo of 98.335-98.655

*SUP 3: 98.410 76.4% Fibo of 98.335-98.655

*SUP 4: 98.360 Dec 15 low

*COMMENTARY* Having lost 98.495 support earlier in the month, the 98.470 level

has since provided some interim support and protection to the 61.8% Fibo retrace

level at 98.455. That said, any recovery will need to deal firstly with the Oct

13 high at 98.510 and then more importantly the dual highs at 98.525. Through

here the minimum requirement to provide some respite and allow some greater

correction of the losses seen since the Sep 8 high at 98.635. 

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]