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MONTH-END EXTENSIONS

Updated Barclays/Bbg Extension Estimates for US

US TSYS

Late Session Selling

By Les Castell
     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FI Technical Analysis Report -
http://tinyurl.com/h8pyhnq
US 5YR FUTURE TECHS: (Z17) 116-300/116-282 Supports Further Recovery Efforts
*RES 4: 117-207 Oct 13 high, 38.2% Fibo of 119-015/116-252
*RES 3: 117-137 Oct 19 high
*RES 2: 117-102 Oct 16 low, now resistance
*RES 1: 117-072 Oct 24 high
*PRICE: 117-037 @1152GMT
*SUP 1: 116-282/300 Hourly support
*SUP 2: 116-252 Oct 27 low
*SUP 3: 116-175 Dec 15 low
*SUP 4: 116-155 Mar 10 low
*COMMENTARY* Continued pressure saw both the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at 117-020
and the Mar 17 low at 116-295 give way. A low of 116-252 on Friday, after the
topside was curtailed by the 117-037 level on Thursday. Has subsequently rallied
on the back of some near term oversold conditions. The move back above that
117-037 level is encouraging. A hold above 116-300/116-282 would also help any
recovery, which above 117-072 can challenge 117-102/117-137 next.
     
US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (Z17) 125-005/125-015 Still The Bar To Continued Recovery 
*RES 4: 125-195 38.2% Fibo of 127-285/124-060
*RES 3: 125-160 Oct 19 high
*RES 2: 125-055 Hourly base Oct 19, now resistance
*RES 1: 125-005/015 Oct 24 high, Oct 18 low
*PRICE: 124-255 @1200GMT
*SUP 1: 124-115 Hourly support
*SUP 2: 124-060/065 Oct 25, Mar 29 lows
*SUP 3: 123-235 76.4% Fibo of 122-145/127-285
*SUP 4: 123-205 1% volatility band
*COMMENTARY* Downside interest continued last week, resulting in a challenge to
the Mar 29 low at 124-065. That push lower resulted in some near term oversold
conditions and the scope for some recovery. This however, will need to break
back above 125-005/125-015 before any real upside impetus will be forthcoming
and allow some greater correction of recent losses from the Oct 13 high at
125-255. In the meantime, 124-115, protects 124-065/124-060 again.
     
US 30YR FUTURE TECHS: (Z17) 151-25 Break Can Fuel Further Corrective Potential
*RES 4: 153-10 Oct 17 low, now resistance
*RES 3: 152-20/25 Oct 23 high, Oct 18 low
*RES 2: 152-07/10 Congestion area Oct 20-24
*RES 1: 151-22/25 Oct 26 high, Oct 20 low
*PRICE: 151-17 @1205GMT
*SUP 1: 150-07/15 May 11 low, 2017 bull channel base proj'n
*SUP 2: 149-09 2% volatility band
*SUP 3: 148-24 76.4% Fibo of 145-26/158-09
*SUP 4: 147-14/15 Mar 16-17 lows
*COMMENTARY* Following the failure to reclaim levels above 151-25 last week, the
downside push continued, most latterly in a dip to 150-10 on Friday, just below
the 2017 bull channel base projection at 150-15 but for the time being still
above the May 11 low at 150-07. Will need to hold here to avoid the eventuality
of a deeper fall towards the lower 2% volatility band and perhaps the 76.4% Fibo
level at 148-24. Back above 151-22/151-25 can provide relief.
     US EURODOLLAR TECHS: (Z17) 98.510-98.525 Still In The Way Of Any Recovery
Hopes
*RES 4: 98.580 Sep 14 high
*RES 3: 98.555 Aug 25 low, now resistance
*RES 2: 98.525 Sep 25, Sep 28 highs
*RES 1: 98.510 Oct 13 high
*PRICE: 98.490 @1208GMT
*SUP 1: 98.470 Apr 24, Oct 6 lows
*SUP 2: 98.455 61.8% Fibo of 98.335-98.655
*SUP 3: 98.410 76.4% Fibo of 98.335-98.655
*SUP 4: 98.360 Dec 15 low
*COMMENTARY* Having lost 98.495 support earlier in the month, the 98.470 level
has since provided some interim support and protection to the 61.8% Fibo retrace
level at 98.455. That said, any recovery will need to deal firstly with the Oct
13 high at 98.510 and then more importantly the dual highs at 98.525. Through
here the minimum requirement to provide some respite and allow some greater
correction of the losses seen since the Sep 8 high at 98.635.
--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]