MNI US Morning Fixed Income Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FI Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/h8pyhnq

US 5YR FUTURE TECHS: (Z17) Downside Pressure Resumes

*RES 4: 117-120 Nov 3 high

*RES 3: 117-057/082 Nov 6, Nov 7 lows, Nov 9 high

*RES 2: 117-015 Nov 20 high

*RES 1: 116-295/310 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: 116-245 @1055GMT

*SUP 1: 116-175 Dec 15 low

*SUP 2: 116-155 Mar 10 low

*SUP 3: 115-285 Feb 2011 low (Continuation Chart)

*SUP 4: 115-252 1% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* The decline has continued into this week, today trying to maintain

a break below the Oct 27 low at 116-252. A sustained loss here will swing the

overall bias back to the downside and focus again on the Mar 10 low at 116-155.

In the interim, any recovery will now meet resistance from 116-295/116-310 but

need to surpass 117-015, before the chances of a near term recovery improve.

US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (Z17) Key 124-155 Holds But 125-080 Still Caps Recovery

*RES 4: 125-255 Oct 13 high

*RES 3: 125-195 38.2% Fibo of 127-285/124-060

*RES 2: 125-150/160 Nov 7, Oct 19 highs

*RES 1: 125-080 Series hourly highs Nov 9

*PRICE: 124-245 @1058GMT

*SUP 1: 124-210 Hourly support

*SUP 2: 124-155/160 Hourly basing area Oct 25-26, Nov 14 low

*SUP 3: 124-060/065 Oct 25, Mar 29 lows

*SUP 4: 123-235 76.4% Fibo of 122-145/127-285

*COMMENTARY* The key 124-155 support level withstood pressure last week and with

near term conditions now oversold, there is encouragement for some recovery. How

much will be gauged by the reaction to firstly 125-080 resistance and then the

125-150/125-195 region. Above the latter would trigger a better correction of

losses from the Sep 8 high at 127-285. Meanwhile 124-210 protects that still key

124-155 level.

US 30YR FUTURE TECHS: (Z17) 153-03/152-30 Supports Further Upside Activity

*RES 4: 156-20 2% volatility band

*RES 3: 156-13 76.4% Fibo of 158-09/150-10

*RES 2: 155-04/08 Sep 25 high, 61.8% of 158-09/150-10

*RES 1: 154-14/26 Nov 20, Nov 8 highs

*PRICE: 154-08 @1102GMT

*SUP 1: 153-03 Nov 16 low

*SUP 2: 152-30 Nov 13 high, now support

*SUP 3: 152-18 Hourly base Nov 13

*SUP 4: 152-01 Nov 12 low

*COMMENTARY* Found support from the 61.8% Fibo retrace level at 152-01 last week

and the recovery has continued into this. Monday's move above 154-05/154-10, if

it can be sustained, is encouraging, a further move through 154-26, would then

have the next resistance of consequence, between 155-04/155-08 within it's

reach. Support is also on the rise, the Nov 16 low at 153-03 and the Nov 13 high

at 152-30, should now hold, if the rally is to continue.

     US EURODOLLAR TECHS: (Z17) 61.8% Fibo Support From 98.455 Now Under

Pressure

*RES 4: 98.580 Sep 14 high

*RES 3: 98.555 Aug 25 low, now resistance

*RES 2: 98.525 Sep 25, Sep 28 highs

*RES 1: 98.510 Oct 13 high

*PRICE: 98.455 @1105GMT

*SUP 1: 98.450/455 Nov 21 low, 61.8% Fibo of 98.335-98.655

*SUP 2: 98.410 76.4% Fibo of 98.335-98.655

*SUP 3: 98.360 Dec 15 low

*SUP 4: 98.335 Mar 15 low

*COMMENTARY* Some movement this month, 98.470 support has finally given way,

allowing the focus to switch to 98.455. This the 61.8% Fibo retrace level of the

98.335-98.655 rally, seen between March and May earlier this year. Resistance in

the meantime hasn't really changed, while 98.455 remains intact, then it will

take a move back above 98.510 to alter things. Loss of 98.455 however, which

remains under pressure, will trigger a deeper 98.410 fall.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]