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MNI US Morning Fixed Income Technical Analysis
By Les Castell
Click below for today's MNI US Morning FI Technical Analysis Report -
http://tinyurl.com/h8pyhnq
US 5YR FUTURE TECHS: (H18) Focus On Two Channel Bases As 116-052 Support Creaks
*RES 4: 116-282 Nov 28 high
*RES 3: 116-252 Nov 29 high
*RES 2: 116-227 Dec 1 high
*RES 1: 116-170/177 Dec 6 high, 3 month falling res line
*PRICE: 116-050 @1145GMT
*SUP 1: 116-042/052 Intraday low, Dec 3, Dec 5 lows
*SUP 2: 116-012 9 week bear channel base projection
*SUP 3: 115-180 3 month bear channel base projection
*SUP 4: 115-055 1% volatility band
*COMMENTARY* The 116-052 area which has provided protection to the downside this
month, is currently under pressure. Lose here and then the 9 week bear channel
at 116-012 and the 3 month bear channel base at 115-180 are next supports, ahead
of the lower 1% volatility band at 115-055. There is still resistance from
between 116-170 and the 3 month falling resistance line at 116-177 to deal with,
before the upside is then in a position to challenge the Dec 1 high at 116-227.
US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (H18) 123-295 Support Back Under Pressure
*RES 4: 124-320 Nov 28 high
*RES 3: 124-275 Dec 1, Nov 29 highs, 9 week res line
*RES 2: 124-230 Dec 6 high
*RES 1: 124-175/205 Hourly resistance, Dec 7 high
*PRICE: 123-315 @1152GMT
*SUP 1: 123-295 Nov 30 low
*SUP 2: 123-270 Oct 25, Oct 27 lows
*SUP 3: 123-115 9 week bear channel base projection
*SUP 4: 123-005 1% volatility band
*COMMENTARY* The 123-295 low from the end of last month still remains intact,
having also endured pressure earlier this month. The subsequent recovery
however, is still mired in resistance from below 124-230/124-275, requiring a
move back above the latter, before real interest in an upside resurgence will
appear. In the meantime, some earlier resistance from 124-175/124-205. Below
123-295 and 123-270 is the brake to a further 123-115/123-005 fall.
US 30YR FUTURE TECHS: (H18) Pullback Enters 152-13/151-15 Support Zone
*RES 4: 154-23/26 76.4% 156-14/149-07, November highs
*RES 3: 154-17/18 1% volatility band, Dec 6 high
*RES 2: 153-19 Dec 11 high
*RES 1: 153-06/08 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: 152-19 @1201GMT
*SUP 1: 152-05 Dec 12 low
*SUP 2: 151-26 Hourly base Dec 1
*SUP 3: 151-15 1% volatility band
*SUP 4: 150-30 Nov 10, 13 lows
*COMMENTARY* A fresh rise last Wednesday, through 154-06 resistance but the
rally was halted by the upper 1% volatility band, which is now at 154-17 by time
today. Above and there is still congested resistance between 154-23/154-26, to
deal with, that capped rallies last month. As a result, have seen a pullback
below 152-21 which opens the prospect of a deeper 152-13/151-15 fall, ahead of
the dual Nov lows at 150-30. Meanwhile, back above 153-06/153-19 would help.
US EURODOLLAR TECHS: (H18) Edging Ever Closer to 98.200 Support
*RES 4: 98.365 Oct 30 high
*RES 3: 98.345 Oct 6 low, now resistance
*RES 2: 98.325 Nov 15 high
*RES 1: 98.295/305 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: 98.215 @1205GMT
*SUP 1: 98.215 Dec 12 low
*SUP 2: 98.200 Jan 26 high, Mar 15 low
*SUP 3: 98.185 61.8% Fibo of 97.535-98.240
*SUP 4: 98.165 Mar 30 2015 high, now support
*COMMENTARY* Some movement last month, support from 98.290 the 76.4% Fibo
retrace level gave way, followed by the Mar 16 base at 98.260. Now support from
98.240 has broken, a sustained break below and the dual support from 98.200
comes back into view. To provide any relief, then an initial move back above
98.295-98.305 is needed before thoughts can turn to a better 98.325-98.365
recovery.
--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.