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Free AccessMNI US Morning Fixed Income Technical Analysis
By Les Castell
Click below for today's MNI US Morning FI Technical Analysis Report -
http://tinyurl.com/h8pyhnq
US 5YR FUTURE TECHS: (H18) Approaches Long Term Support From 115-285/115-205
*RES 4: 116-190 Dec 13 high
*RES 3: 116-147 Hourly recovery high Dec 14
*RES 2: 116-117 Dec 18 high
*RES 1: 116-067/085 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: 115-317 @1144GMT
*SUP 1: 115-285/295 Feb 2011 low, Dec 20 low
*SUP 2: 115-205 5 year bear channel base projection
*SUP 3: 115-122 3 month bear channel base projection
*SUP 4: 115-020 1% volatility band
*COMMENTARY* Fresh downside pressure this week following the inability to
traverse the 50% Fibo retrace level at 116-192 last Wednesday. Have finally seen
116-032 support buckle, the subsequent decline moving slightly below the 10 week
bear channel base and now approaching long term support between 115-285/115-205.
Meanwhile, 116-067/116-085 still provides resistance. Above and congested
116-117/116-147 lies ahead of any attempt at a real recovery.
US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (H18) 10 Week Bear Channel Base Comes Under Scrutiny
*RES 4: 124-210 Dec 13 high
*RES 3: 124-135 Dec 18 high
*RES 2: 124-070 Dec 15 low, now resistance
*RES 1: 123-290/295 Dec 13, Nov 30 lows, now resistance
*PRICE: 123-175 @1157GMT
*SUP 1: 123-135/140 Dec 20 low, 10 week bear channel base
*SUP 2: 123-115 Mar 17 low
*SUP 3: 122-275 1% volatility band
*SUP 4: 122-205 Mar 10, Mar 14 lows
*COMMENTARY* 123-290/123-295 support gave way on Tuesday. The subsequent fall
breaking below the long term 76.4% Fibo retrace level at 123-235. A low of
123-135 seen so far, just below the 10 week bear channel base at 123-140 today,
before bouncing again on the back of some oversold hourly conditions.
123-290/123-295 still near term resistance, above needed before the chance of a
better 124-070/124-135 recovery. Below 123-135 and look to 123-115/122-275 next.
US 30YR FUTURE TECHS: (H18) Focus Now On Reaction To 150-10/150-07 Support
*RES 4: 153-15 Dec 19 high
*RES 3: 153-02 Dec 18 low, now resistance
*RES 2: 152-05 Dec 12 low, now resistance
*RES 1: 151-18 Underside broken 2017 bull channel
*PRICE: 150-24 @1210GMT
*SUP 1: 150-07/10 May 11, Oct 27 lows
*SUP 2: 149-20 1% volatility band
*SUP 3: 148-24 76.4% Fibo of 145-26/158-09
*SUP 4: 147-14/15 Mar 16, Mar 17 lows
*COMMENTARY* Failure to trouble 154-23/154-26 resistance this month has finally
proved the catalyst for a sharp decline. This losing support from 153-22 on
Tuesday has seen the Dec 12 low at 152-05 give way as well as important support
from between 151-17/151-07. Below here and focus will switch to 150-10/150-07.
Meanwhile, resistance from 151-18 but back above 152-05 would likely provide
some 153-02/153-15 respite.
US EURODOLLAR TECHS: (H18) Moving Closer Toward 98.200 Support
*RES 4: 98.365 Oct 30 high
*RES 3: 98.345 Oct 6 low, now resistance
*RES 2: 98.325 Nov 15 high
*RES 1: 98.290/300 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: 98.215 @1212GMT
*SUP 1: 98.200 Jan 26 high, Mar 15 low
*SUP 2: 98.185 61.8% Fibo of 97.535-98.240
*SUP 3: 98.165 Mar 30 2015 high, now support
*SUP 4: 98.080 Dec 2015 low
*COMMENTARY* Some movement last month, support from 98.290 the 76.4% Fibo
retrace level gave way, followed by the Mar 16 base at 98.260. Now support from
98.240 has broken, a sustained break below and the dual support from 98.200
comes back into view. To provide any relief, then an initial move back above
98.290-98.300 is needed, before thoughts can turn to a better 98.325-98.365
recovery.
--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.