MNI US Morning Fixed Income Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FI Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/h8pyhnq

US 5YR FUTURE TECHS: (H18) Correction Needs 115-222 Break To Grow

*RES 4: 116-065/067 Dec 29 high, Dec 18 low

*RES 3: 116-002 Jan 5 high

*RES 2: 115-270 Dec 26 low, now resistance

*RES 1: 115-222 Jan 11 high

*PRICE: 115-197 @1054GMT

*SUP 1: 115-152/155 Hourly base Jan 12, Jan 10 low

*SUP 2: 115-117 Jan 12 low

*SUP 3: 115-030 9 week bear channel base projection

*SUP 4: 114-290 3 month bear channel base projection

*COMMENTARY* A spike low last Friday found support from 115-117 before the

weight of some near term oversold conditions have prompted a bounce. This now

sees nearest resistance from the Jan 11 high at 115-222. Above here would

encourage some more correction of losses seen from the Dec 29 high at 116-065,

beginning with the Dec 26 low at 115-270 but the jan 5 high at 116-002 remains

the main obstacle higher. In the interim, 115-155/115-152 provides support.

US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (H18) Decline Again Holds Around 122-200/122-205 Support

*RES 4: 124-025 Dec 29 high

*RES 3: 123-280/285 Jan 5, Jan 3 highs

*RES 2: 123-125 Dec 21 low, now resistance

*RES 1: 123-050 Jan 11 high

*PRICE: 123-045 @1106GMT

*SUP 1: 122-200/205 Jan 12 base, Mar 10, Mar 14 lows

*SUP 2: 122-145 Dec 15 2016 low

*SUP 3: 122-070 Sep 2013 low

*SUP 4: 122-025 1% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* Has again found support from around the Mar 10-14 lows from last

year, a base of 122-200 seen last Friday, before bouncing on the back of some

oversold near term conditions. In this respect, a move back above 123-050 will

commence a correction of losses sustained since the 124-025 high on Dec 29. In

this likely event, look to 123-125/123-285 for the next band of resistance.

US 30YR FUTURE TECHS: (H18) Correcting After 149-03 Support Hold Last Week

*RES 4: 152-21 Jan 5 high

*RES 3: 151-26 5 week falling resistance line

*RES 2: 151-12/19 Jan 2, Jan 4 lows, now resistance

*RES 1: 151-03/08 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: 150-29 @1121GMT

*SUP 1: 149-17 Jan 11, Jan 12 lows

*SUP 2: 149-03 Jan 10 low

*SUP 3: 148-24 76.4% Fibo of 145-26/158-09

*SUP 4: 148-04/07 2% vol band, 5 week bear channel proj'n 

*COMMENTARY* Managed to hold on to 149-03 support last week and some near term

oversold conditions have allowed a bounce. In this respect, look to

151-03/151-08 for immediate resistance, as we continue to correct losses

initially from the Dec 27 high at 153-04. As a consequence, support rises to

149-17 and this currently protects the downside from another grilling. Above

151-08 and recovery can stretch to 151-12/151-26 next.

     US EURODOLLAR TECHS: (H18) 98.180 Provides A Cap Against Any Near Term

Recovery

*RES 4: 98.245 Dec 28-29 highs

*RES 3: 98.225 Jan 3 high

*RES 2: 98.205 Dec 20-27 lows, Jan 5 high

*RES 1: 98.180 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: 98.140 @1142GMT

*SUP 1: 98.140 Intraday low

*SUP 2: 98.080 Dec 2015 low

*SUP 3: 98.055 Nov 2015 low

*SUP 4: 97.995 38.2% Fibo of 95.980-99.240

*COMMENTARY* It began with the slip below 98.205 support on Jan 4 and has been

followed by a further break below 98.165 last Friday. Following this, there is

the chance for a potentially deeper fall, as not much is currently evident ahead

of the December 2015 low at 98.080. Meanwhile, 98.140 is providing some support

on the day. As a result, nearest resistance falls to 98.180, back above would

provide some respite but that 98.205 level now provides a tougher ask.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]