MNI US Morning Fixed Income Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

Click below for today's MNI US Morning FI Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/h8pyhnq

US 5YR FUTURE TECHS: (M18) 113-190 Now The Brake To Any Further Recovery Hopes

*RES 4: 113-257 Apr 16 low, now resistance

*RES 3: 113-222 Apr 18 low, now resistance

*RES 2: 113-190 Mar 21 low, now resistance

*RES 1: 113-172 Apr 19 low, now resistance

*PRICE: 113-132 @1020GMT

*SUP 1: 113-062 Apr 25 low

*SUP 2: 112-290 Equality fall from 114-207 to 115-127/113-210

*SUP 3: 112-210 Equality fall from 118-320 to 122-285/116-155

*SUP 4: 112-110 1% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* The loss of pivotal 113-272 support returned overall focus to the

downside last week, followed by a break of the key 113-180/113-170 area. A low

of 113-062 so far, this ahead of 112-290, the first of two equality fall

targets. As a consequence, resistance drops to 113-172/113-190, above the latter

would help reinforce the recent break back above the 2 week downtrend and allow

a higher 113-222/113-257 recovery.

US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (M18) Further Recovery Requires 119-175/119-230 Break

*RES 4: 120-070 Apr 16 low, now resistance

*RES 3: 119-295 Apr 20 high

*RES 2: 119-215/230 Feb 27, 28, Apr 19 lows, now resistance

*RES 1: 119-175 Apr 27 high

*PRICE: 119-140 @1030GMT

*SUP 1: 119-035 Hourly support

*SUP 2: 118-310 Apr 25 low

*SUP 3: 118-150 Equality fall from 121-120 to 122-190/120-030

*SUP 4: 118-115 6 year median line, 1% volatility band 

*COMMENTARY* Last week saw a break below congested 119-265/119-215 support. A

low of 118-310, as we so far head off a test towards the equality fall target at

118-150. Any lower and the 6 year median line and lower 1% volatility band at

118-115 become the next levels to watch. As a consequence, oversold in near

term, above 119-175 would assist but any real recovery is beholden to a higher

119-215/119-230 break.

US 30YR FUTURE TECHS: (M18)  143-09/143-12 The Bar To Continued Recovery Efforts

*RES 4: 145-22 Apr 3 low, now resistance

*RES 3: 144-25/31 Apr 5 low, broken 2 month support line

*RES 2: 143-31 Apr 20 high

*RES 1: 143-09/12 Apr 24, 27 highs, Apr 19 low

*PRICE: 143-03 @1038GMT

*SUP 1: 141-29 Hourly support

*SUP 2: 141-14/17 Feb 21, Apr 25 lows

*SUP 3: 140-26 Dec 2014 low, 2.618 projected fall from 146-28

*SUP 4: 139-14 76.4% Fibo of 127-23/177-11

*COMMENTARY* The fall from the Apr 17 recovery high at 146-02 has seen a break

beneath the 2 month rising support line, at 144-31 by time today. The subsequent

fall has also surpassed the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at 142-25, a low of 141-17

last Wednesday, just above the next support from the Feb 21 low at 141-14.

Oversold as a result in the near term, back above 143-12 currently needed to

improve the situation further. In the interim, nearest support now 141-29.

US EURODOLLAR TECHS: (M18) Will Remain Under Pressure While 97.670 Caps 

*RES 4: 97.740 Mar 27-28 highs 

*RES 3: 97.715 Apr 2 high

*RES 2: 97.670 6 month falling resistance line

*RES 1: 97.655/660 Hourly resistance, Apr 6, Apr 9 lows

*PRICE: 97.645 @1043GMT

*SUP 1: 97.600/610 Apr 26 low, hourly support

*SUP 2: 97.585 Jun 29 2015 low

*SUP 3: 97.560 1.618 swing of 97.630-97.740

*SUP 4: 97.515 50% Fibo of 95.835/99.200

*COMMENTARY* The fall has continued this month, beneath the first swing target

at 97.625. A low of 97.600 so far, sustained break lower and not much is

currently evident ahead of the Jun 2015 low at 97.585 and more importantly the

second swing target at 97.560. As a consequence, initial resistance has fallen

to 97.655-97.660 but the 6 month falling resistance line is at the slightly

higher 97.670 level this week. Above needed before any real respite likely.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]