MNI US Morning Fixed Income Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

Click below for today's MNI US Morning FI Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/h8pyhnq

US 5YR FUTURE TECHS: (U18) Near Term Pullback After Break 50% Fibo Retrace Level

*RES 4: 114-020/035 Hourly high May 30, 76.4% 114-152/112-290

*RES 3: 113-292 May 31 high

*RES 2: 113-280 61.8% Fibo of 114-152/112-290

*RES 1: 113-245/255 Jun 27, Jun 28 highs

*PRICE: 113-197 @1025GMT

*SUP 1: 113-182/187 Jun 25, Jun 26 highs, now support

*SUP 2: 113-157 Jun 27 low

*SUP 3: 113-130 Jun 25 low

*SUP 4: 113-095 Jun 22 low

*COMMENTARY* This month's 112-290 low was basically a test to the 76.4% Fibo

retrace of the preceding 112-147/114-152 rise. The recovery since has been

relatively quick, this week seeing a further break through pivotal

113-202/113-207 resistance and also Wednesday moving above the 50% Fibo retrace

level at 113-220. Through 113-245/113-255 and not much in the way of a further

113-280/113-292 rise. Support moves up to 113-187/113-130, loss would caution.

US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (U18) Rally Reaches Toward 120-150/120-185 Resistance

*RES 4: 120-240 Hourly high May 30

*RES 3: 120-220 Equality rise from 119-135 to 118-295/120-060

*RES 2: 120-185 76.4% Fibo of 121-030/118-295

*RES 1: 120-150/160 May 31 high, hourly high May 30

*PRICE: 120-065 @1029GMT

*SUP 1: 120-020 Hourly support

*SUP 2: 119-300 Jun 27 low

*SUP 3: 119-265 Jun 26 low

*SUP 4: 119-205 Jun 22 low

*COMMENTARY* This month saw a sharp dip to 118-295, just below support from the

May 24 low at 118-300. The subsequent recovery has been almost as swift, rising

through 119-275 and Wednesday breaking above the next Fibo level of note, the

61.8% retrace at 120-085. Sustained move through here and look to

120-150/120-185 as next potential target zone. Support as a result, moves up to

120-020/119-265, which should hold if rally to continue.

US 30YR FUTURE TECHS: (U18) Rally Clears Key 144-25/144-31 Resistance 

*RES 4: 146-03 Apr 2 high

*RES 3: 145-28 May 30 high

*RES 2: 145-25 Equality rise from 143-01 to 142-01/144-25

*RES 1: 145-11/19 Jun 27 high, 1% volatility band

*PRICE: 145-07 @1035GMT

*SUP 1: 144-25 Jun 19 high, now support

*SUP 2: 144-14 Hourly support

*SUP 3: 144-04/05 Jun 21 high, Jun 27 low

*SUP 4: 143-30 Jun 26 low

*COMMENTARY* This month saw two attempts on 142-03/142-01 support. The

subsequent recovery created a potentially bullish 'Doji' candle on the daily

chart. Since, we have seen a rally back through 144-25 and also the slightly

higher 76.4% Fibo retrace level at 144-31. Meanwhile, support rises initially to

that 144-25 level and then 144-14/144-04 below. Look for 145-19/145-25 next on

sustained break through 144-31.

US EURODOLLAR TECHS: (U18) 97.560 Resistance Proving Difficult To Break

*RES 4: 97.640 May 29 high

*RES 3: 97.600 76.4% Fibo of 97.640-97.475

*RES 2: 97.575 May 14 high, 61.8% of 97.640-97.475

*RES 1: 97.560 Jun 7 high

*PRICE: 97.550 @1040GMT

*SUP 1: 97.520 Hourly support

*SUP 2: 97.500 Jun 14 low

*SUP 3: 97.475 Apr 25, May 8 lows

*SUP 4: 97.425 50% Fibo of 95.695-99.155

*COMMENTARY* Saw a move back above the 9 month falling resistance line earlier

last month and this has been the precursor to some recovery. We have

subsequently seen a rally back to 97.640 where the rally stalled. As a result,

there has been a fresh fall below 97.500 support, although the decline has been

held by the stronger 97.475 level. This remains key to overall direction.

Nearest resistance 97.560-97.575, although above 97.600 needed for impetus.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]