MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Near Term Support Seen From Between $1.1764-$1.1755

*RES 4: $1.2047 July 2012 low, now resistance

*RES 3: $1.1927 2% volatility band

*RES 2: $1.1881 June 2010 low, now resistance

*RES 1: $1.1855 1.618 swing $1.1777-$1.1650

*PRICE: $1.1820 @0858GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.1755/64 Hourly support, Jul 28 high now support

*SUP 2: $1.1723 Jul 31 low

*SUP 3: $1.1684 Jul 24 high, now support

*SUP 4: $1.1650 Jul 27 low

*COMMENTARY* Monday's late rally took us above the 4 month bull channel

projection and on the approach to the next resistance, from the swing target at

$1.1855. Currently correcting some near term overbought conditions but any

setback is likely just a 4th wave correction in the rise from $1.1650, while

above Friday's $1.1764 high. Directly above $1.1855 and the June 2010 low at

$1.1881 is noted ahead of the 2% volatility band at $1.1927.

CABLE TECHS: Break Higher Brings $1.3245-$1.3253 Next Into View

*RES 4: $1.3344 2% volatility band

*RES 3: $1.3332 1.618 swing of $1.3048-$1.2589

*RES 2: $1.3253 Equality rise target from $1.2812

*RES 1: $1.3245 1.618 swing of $1.3126-$1.2933

*PRICE: $1.3238 @0911GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3190 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.3152/59 Jul 28, Jul 27 highs, now support

*SUP 3: $1.3120 Hourly congestion area Jul 31 

*SUP 4: $1.3097 Jul 31 low

*COMMENTARY* Broke above $1.3165-$1.3184 resistance on Monday, the next target

area is now seen from between $1.3245-$1.3253. This a combination of a recent

swing target and an equality rise move from the Jul 12 low at $1.2812. As a

consequence, support also on the rise, $1.3190 is the initial protection ahead

of two recent highs between $1.3159-$1.3152. Directly through $1.3253 and

currently not a lot showing ahead of another swing target at $1.3332.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Y110.60-Y110.78 Can Put A Brake On Any Near Term Recovery

*RES 4: Y111.29 Jul 28 high

*RES 3: Y111.05/10 Hourly congestion Jul 27-28

*RES 2: Y110.78 Jul 27 low, Jul 31 high

*RES 1: Y110.60/62 Hourly resistance, Jul 24 low

*PRICE: Y110.37 @0921GMT

*SUP 1: Y110.00 1% volatility band

*SUP 2: Y109.63 76.4% Y108.13-Y114.50, swing Y110.62-Y112.20

*SUP 3: Y109.38 4 month rising support line

*SUP 4: Y108.92 2% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* The decline currently resting alongside the lower 1% volatility

band at Y110.00. The likely next target however is at Y109.63, a combination of

a 76.4% Fibo retrace level and a swing target of last month's Y110.62-Y112.20

late recovery. In the meantime, look to Y110.60-62 for immediate resistance,

Y110.78 above. Back above here is currently the minimum requirement for any real

respite. Below Y109.63 and Y109.38-Y108.82 comes into play.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Still Looking For Break Of Recent Range

*RES 4: Y132.18 1.618 swing of Y130.77-Y128.49

*RES 3: Y131.52 1.618 swing of Y130.51-Y128.87

*RES 2: Y131.25 1% volatility band

*RES 1: Y130.62/77 Jul 26, Jul 11 highs 

*PRICE: Y130.41 @0928GMT

*SUP 1: Y129.80/90 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Y129.55 Jul 27 low

*SUP 3: Y129.25 Jul 25 low 

*SUP 4: Y128.87 Jul 24 low

*COMMENTARY* Has settled into a range over the last 3 weeks below the Jul 11

high at Y130.77. The upside still looking to benefit from a clear break here,

with the upper 1% volatility band then the bar to a greater Y131.52-Y132.18

rise. The latter the swing target of the Y130.77-Y128.49 fall seen earlier this

month. In the interim, Y128.80-90 is initial support, ahead of a succession of

recent lows currently protecting the base of the range at that Y128.49 level.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Sustained Stg0.8970 Break Still Needed To Resume Rally

*RES 4: Stg0.9052 Nov 2 high

*RES 3: Stg0.9028 Nov 9 high, 1% volatility band

*RES 2: Stg0.8994 Jul 21 high

*RES 1: Stg0.8970/76 Jul 25, Jul 31 highs

*PRICE: Stg0.8933 @0935GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.8891/99 Jul 27, Jul 18 high

*SUP 2: Stg0.8867 Hourly base Jul 20

*SUP 3: Stg0.8828/29 12 week rising suppt line, Jul 19 low

*SUP 4: Stg0.8802 76.4% Fibo of Stg0.8743-Stg0.8994

*COMMENTARY* Tried and failed to establish a break back above Stg0.8970 on

Monday. The rally quickly repelled and sent back into the recent consolidation

range above Stg0.8891-99 support. Can't give up on seeing an eventual upside

break however, all the time this support area survives. Only a loss will dampen

upside potential and suggest scope for a deeper Stg0.8867-Stg0.8828 fall.

Sustained break of Stg0.8970 can lead to a Stg0.9028 rise next.

GOLD TECHS: Recovery Still Eyes A Test To The 76.4% Fibo Retrace Level

*RES 4: $1289.0 Jun 8 high

*RES 3: $1281.5 Jun 14 high

*RES 2: $1274.6 Jun 6 low, 76.4% Fibo of $1296.1-$1204.8

*RES 1: $1271.3 Jul 28 high

*PRICE: $1267.3 @0938GMT

*SUP 1: $1254.5 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1251.9 Initial rally high Jul 26, now support

*SUP 3: $1243.9 Jul 26 low

*SUP 4: $1235.4 Jul 20 low

*COMMENTARY* The move back up the 5 month range continued last week, with the

recent move through both the June highs at $1258.9 and also the 61.8% Fibo

retrace level at $1261.2. Last Thursday's $1265.5 high now breached but $1271.3

and then the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at $1274.6 currently look more worthy

targets. In the interim, support also on the rise, $1254.5 initially and then

more importantly in the near term from $1251.9.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]