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MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis 

By Les Castell
     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -
http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x
     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Near Term Support Seen From Between $1.1764-$1.1755
*RES 4: $1.2047 July 2012 low, now resistance
*RES 3: $1.1927 2% volatility band
*RES 2: $1.1881 June 2010 low, now resistance
*RES 1: $1.1855 1.618 swing $1.1777-$1.1650
*PRICE: $1.1820 @0858GMT 
*SUP 1: $1.1755/64 Hourly support, Jul 28 high now support
*SUP 2: $1.1723 Jul 31 low
*SUP 3: $1.1684 Jul 24 high, now support
*SUP 4: $1.1650 Jul 27 low
*COMMENTARY* Monday's late rally took us above the 4 month bull channel
projection and on the approach to the next resistance, from the swing target at
$1.1855. Currently correcting some near term overbought conditions but any
setback is likely just a 4th wave correction in the rise from $1.1650, while
above Friday's $1.1764 high. Directly above $1.1855 and the June 2010 low at
$1.1881 is noted ahead of the 2% volatility band at $1.1927.
CABLE TECHS: Break Higher Brings $1.3245-$1.3253 Next Into View
*RES 4: $1.3344 2% volatility band
*RES 3: $1.3332 1.618 swing of $1.3048-$1.2589
*RES 2: $1.3253 Equality rise target from $1.2812
*RES 1: $1.3245 1.618 swing of $1.3126-$1.2933
*PRICE: $1.3238 @0911GMT
*SUP 1: $1.3190 Hourly support
*SUP 2: $1.3152/59 Jul 28, Jul 27 highs, now support
*SUP 3: $1.3120 Hourly congestion area Jul 31 
*SUP 4: $1.3097 Jul 31 low
*COMMENTARY* Broke above $1.3165-$1.3184 resistance on Monday, the next target
area is now seen from between $1.3245-$1.3253. This a combination of a recent
swing target and an equality rise move from the Jul 12 low at $1.2812. As a
consequence, support also on the rise, $1.3190 is the initial protection ahead
of two recent highs between $1.3159-$1.3152. Directly through $1.3253 and
currently not a lot showing ahead of another swing target at $1.3332.
DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Y110.60-Y110.78 Can Put A Brake On Any Near Term Recovery
*RES 4: Y111.29 Jul 28 high
*RES 3: Y111.05/10 Hourly congestion Jul 27-28
*RES 2: Y110.78 Jul 27 low, Jul 31 high
*RES 1: Y110.60/62 Hourly resistance, Jul 24 low
*PRICE: Y110.37 @0921GMT
*SUP 1: Y110.00 1% volatility band
*SUP 2: Y109.63 76.4% Y108.13-Y114.50, swing Y110.62-Y112.20
*SUP 3: Y109.38 4 month rising support line
*SUP 4: Y108.92 2% volatility band
*COMMENTARY* The decline currently resting alongside the lower 1% volatility
band at Y110.00. The likely next target however is at Y109.63, a combination of
a 76.4% Fibo retrace level and a swing target of last month's Y110.62-Y112.20
late recovery. In the meantime, look to Y110.60-62 for immediate resistance,
Y110.78 above. Back above here is currently the minimum requirement for any real
respite. Below Y109.63 and Y109.38-Y108.82 comes into play.
EURO-YEN TECHS: Still Looking For Break Of Recent Range
*RES 4: Y132.18 1.618 swing of Y130.77-Y128.49
*RES 3: Y131.52 1.618 swing of Y130.51-Y128.87
*RES 2: Y131.25 1% volatility band
*RES 1: Y130.62/77 Jul 26, Jul 11 highs 
*PRICE: Y130.41 @0928GMT
*SUP 1: Y129.80/90 Hourly support
*SUP 2: Y129.55 Jul 27 low
*SUP 3: Y129.25 Jul 25 low 
*SUP 4: Y128.87 Jul 24 low
*COMMENTARY* Has settled into a range over the last 3 weeks below the Jul 11
high at Y130.77. The upside still looking to benefit from a clear break here,
with the upper 1% volatility band then the bar to a greater Y131.52-Y132.18
rise. The latter the swing target of the Y130.77-Y128.49 fall seen earlier this
month. In the interim, Y128.80-90 is initial support, ahead of a succession of
recent lows currently protecting the base of the range at that Y128.49 level.
EURO-STERLING TECHS: Sustained Stg0.8970 Break Still Needed To Resume Rally
*RES 4: Stg0.9052 Nov 2 high
*RES 3: Stg0.9028 Nov 9 high, 1% volatility band
*RES 2: Stg0.8994 Jul 21 high
*RES 1: Stg0.8970/76 Jul 25, Jul 31 highs
*PRICE: Stg0.8933 @0935GMT
*SUP 1: Stg0.8891/99 Jul 27, Jul 18 high
*SUP 2: Stg0.8867 Hourly base Jul 20
*SUP 3: Stg0.8828/29 12 week rising suppt line, Jul 19 low
*SUP 4: Stg0.8802 76.4% Fibo of Stg0.8743-Stg0.8994
*COMMENTARY* Tried and failed to establish a break back above Stg0.8970 on
Monday. The rally quickly repelled and sent back into the recent consolidation
range above Stg0.8891-99 support. Can't give up on seeing an eventual upside
break however, all the time this support area survives. Only a loss will dampen
upside potential and suggest scope for a deeper Stg0.8867-Stg0.8828 fall.
Sustained break of Stg0.8970 can lead to a Stg0.9028 rise next.
GOLD TECHS: Recovery Still Eyes A Test To The 76.4% Fibo Retrace Level
*RES 4: $1289.0 Jun 8 high
*RES 3: $1281.5 Jun 14 high
*RES 2: $1274.6 Jun 6 low, 76.4% Fibo of $1296.1-$1204.8
*RES 1: $1271.3 Jul 28 high
*PRICE: $1267.3 @0938GMT
*SUP 1: $1254.5 Hourly support
*SUP 2: $1251.9 Initial rally high Jul 26, now support
*SUP 3: $1243.9 Jul 26 low
*SUP 4: $1235.4 Jul 20 low
*COMMENTARY* The move back up the 5 month range continued last week, with the
recent move through both the June highs at $1258.9 and also the 61.8% Fibo
retrace level at $1261.2. Last Thursday's $1265.5 high now breached but $1271.3
and then the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at $1274.6 currently look more worthy
targets. In the interim, support also on the rise, $1254.5 initially and then
more importantly in the near term from $1251.9.
--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]
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