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Free AccessMNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis
By Les Castell
Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -
http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x
EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Near Term Support Seen From Between $1.1764-$1.1755
*RES 4: $1.2047 July 2012 low, now resistance
*RES 3: $1.1927 2% volatility band
*RES 2: $1.1881 June 2010 low, now resistance
*RES 1: $1.1855 1.618 swing $1.1777-$1.1650
*PRICE: $1.1820 @0858GMT
*SUP 1: $1.1755/64 Hourly support, Jul 28 high now support
*SUP 2: $1.1723 Jul 31 low
*SUP 3: $1.1684 Jul 24 high, now support
*SUP 4: $1.1650 Jul 27 low
*COMMENTARY* Monday's late rally took us above the 4 month bull channel
projection and on the approach to the next resistance, from the swing target at
$1.1855. Currently correcting some near term overbought conditions but any
setback is likely just a 4th wave correction in the rise from $1.1650, while
above Friday's $1.1764 high. Directly above $1.1855 and the June 2010 low at
$1.1881 is noted ahead of the 2% volatility band at $1.1927.
CABLE TECHS: Break Higher Brings $1.3245-$1.3253 Next Into View
*RES 4: $1.3344 2% volatility band
*RES 3: $1.3332 1.618 swing of $1.3048-$1.2589
*RES 2: $1.3253 Equality rise target from $1.2812
*RES 1: $1.3245 1.618 swing of $1.3126-$1.2933
*PRICE: $1.3238 @0911GMT
*SUP 1: $1.3190 Hourly support
*SUP 2: $1.3152/59 Jul 28, Jul 27 highs, now support
*SUP 3: $1.3120 Hourly congestion area Jul 31
*SUP 4: $1.3097 Jul 31 low
*COMMENTARY* Broke above $1.3165-$1.3184 resistance on Monday, the next target
area is now seen from between $1.3245-$1.3253. This a combination of a recent
swing target and an equality rise move from the Jul 12 low at $1.2812. As a
consequence, support also on the rise, $1.3190 is the initial protection ahead
of two recent highs between $1.3159-$1.3152. Directly through $1.3253 and
currently not a lot showing ahead of another swing target at $1.3332.
DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Y110.60-Y110.78 Can Put A Brake On Any Near Term Recovery
*RES 4: Y111.29 Jul 28 high
*RES 3: Y111.05/10 Hourly congestion Jul 27-28
*RES 2: Y110.78 Jul 27 low, Jul 31 high
*RES 1: Y110.60/62 Hourly resistance, Jul 24 low
*PRICE: Y110.37 @0921GMT
*SUP 1: Y110.00 1% volatility band
*SUP 2: Y109.63 76.4% Y108.13-Y114.50, swing Y110.62-Y112.20
*SUP 3: Y109.38 4 month rising support line
*SUP 4: Y108.92 2% volatility band
*COMMENTARY* The decline currently resting alongside the lower 1% volatility
band at Y110.00. The likely next target however is at Y109.63, a combination of
a 76.4% Fibo retrace level and a swing target of last month's Y110.62-Y112.20
late recovery. In the meantime, look to Y110.60-62 for immediate resistance,
Y110.78 above. Back above here is currently the minimum requirement for any real
respite. Below Y109.63 and Y109.38-Y108.82 comes into play.
EURO-YEN TECHS: Still Looking For Break Of Recent Range
*RES 4: Y132.18 1.618 swing of Y130.77-Y128.49
*RES 3: Y131.52 1.618 swing of Y130.51-Y128.87
*RES 2: Y131.25 1% volatility band
*RES 1: Y130.62/77 Jul 26, Jul 11 highs
*PRICE: Y130.41 @0928GMT
*SUP 1: Y129.80/90 Hourly support
*SUP 2: Y129.55 Jul 27 low
*SUP 3: Y129.25 Jul 25 low
*SUP 4: Y128.87 Jul 24 low
*COMMENTARY* Has settled into a range over the last 3 weeks below the Jul 11
high at Y130.77. The upside still looking to benefit from a clear break here,
with the upper 1% volatility band then the bar to a greater Y131.52-Y132.18
rise. The latter the swing target of the Y130.77-Y128.49 fall seen earlier this
month. In the interim, Y128.80-90 is initial support, ahead of a succession of
recent lows currently protecting the base of the range at that Y128.49 level.
EURO-STERLING TECHS: Sustained Stg0.8970 Break Still Needed To Resume Rally
*RES 4: Stg0.9052 Nov 2 high
*RES 3: Stg0.9028 Nov 9 high, 1% volatility band
*RES 2: Stg0.8994 Jul 21 high
*RES 1: Stg0.8970/76 Jul 25, Jul 31 highs
*PRICE: Stg0.8933 @0935GMT
*SUP 1: Stg0.8891/99 Jul 27, Jul 18 high
*SUP 2: Stg0.8867 Hourly base Jul 20
*SUP 3: Stg0.8828/29 12 week rising suppt line, Jul 19 low
*SUP 4: Stg0.8802 76.4% Fibo of Stg0.8743-Stg0.8994
*COMMENTARY* Tried and failed to establish a break back above Stg0.8970 on
Monday. The rally quickly repelled and sent back into the recent consolidation
range above Stg0.8891-99 support. Can't give up on seeing an eventual upside
break however, all the time this support area survives. Only a loss will dampen
upside potential and suggest scope for a deeper Stg0.8867-Stg0.8828 fall.
Sustained break of Stg0.8970 can lead to a Stg0.9028 rise next.
GOLD TECHS: Recovery Still Eyes A Test To The 76.4% Fibo Retrace Level
*RES 4: $1289.0 Jun 8 high
*RES 3: $1281.5 Jun 14 high
*RES 2: $1274.6 Jun 6 low, 76.4% Fibo of $1296.1-$1204.8
*RES 1: $1271.3 Jul 28 high
*PRICE: $1267.3 @0938GMT
*SUP 1: $1254.5 Hourly support
*SUP 2: $1251.9 Initial rally high Jul 26, now support
*SUP 3: $1243.9 Jul 26 low
*SUP 4: $1235.4 Jul 20 low
*COMMENTARY* The move back up the 5 month range continued last week, with the
recent move through both the June highs at $1258.9 and also the 61.8% Fibo
retrace level at $1261.2. Last Thursday's $1265.5 high now breached but $1271.3
and then the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at $1274.6 currently look more worthy
targets. In the interim, support also on the rise, $1254.5 initially and then
more importantly in the near term from $1251.9.
--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.