MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: $1.1830-$1.1870 In Way Of Fresh Upside Hopes

*RES 4: $1.1956 4 month bull channel top projection

*RES 3: $1.1911/21 Aug 2 high, equality rise from $1.1119

*RES 2: $1.1860/70 Series congestion lows Aug 3-4

*RES 1: $1.1830 Aug 3 low, now resistance

*PRICE: $1.1815 @0833GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.1750 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.1712 Jul 25 high, 76.4% Fibo of $1.1650-$1.1911

*SUP 3: $1.1674/84 1% volatility band, Jul 28 high

*SUP 4: $1.1650 Jul 27 low

*COMMENTARY* Faltered on Friday after entering into the early stages of the next

$1.1906-$1.1921 target zone. This then followed by a break of the

$1.1815-$1.1777 area, which has spoiled recent upside momentum and triggered a

correction.  So far, this has remained above the Jul 25 high and 76.4% Fibo

retrace level at $1.1712 where next clues are garnered. Resistance now from

$1.1830-$1.1870, above the latter needed to ease current corrective pressure.

CABLE TECHS: Thursday's $1.3112 Low Remains Pivotal To Intraday Direction

*RES 4: $1.3208 Initial low Aug 3, now resistance

*RES 3: $1.3165 Aug 4 high

*RES 2: $1.3112 Aug 3 low, now resistance

*RES 1: $1.3085/95 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.3041 @0847GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3008/15 Equality fall, 76.4% of $1.2933-$1.3269

*SUP 2: $1.2992 1% volatility band

*SUP 3: $1.2929/33 50% of $1.2589-$1.3269, Jul 20 low

*SUP 4: $1.2920 76.4% Fibo of $1.2812-$1.3269

*COMMENTARY* The $1.3015-$1.3008 support area has caught the fall so far.

Initial resistance remains from $1.3085-95 but it is the slightly higher $1.3112

level that offers more clues. Ideally this should remain untouched, if we are to

see a further move down at this stage. Above would alleviate pressure and allow

a higher $1.3065-$1.3208 rise. While it caps, the 1% volatility band at $1.2992

protects against a further $1.2929-$1.2920 fall.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Break Above Y111.05 Still Needed To Continue Recovery

*RES 4: Y112.20 Jul 26 high

*RES 3: Y111.64/72 76.4% of Y112.20-Y109.84, Jul 28 high

*RES 2: Y111.29/30 Jul 28 high, 61.8% of Y112.20-Y109.84

*RES 1: Y111.02/05 50% of Y112.20-Y109.84, Aug 4 high

*PRICE: Y110.56 @0853GMT

*SUP 1: Y110.45 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Y110.15 Aug 4 hourly congestion area

*SUP 3: Y109.84 Aug 3 low

*SUP 4: Y109.63 76.4% Y108.13-Y114.50, swing Y110.62-Y112.20

*COMMENTARY* Support found from Y109.84 last Thursday, slightly above the lower

1% volatility band at the time but so far keeping us from a test to what looks

stronger support from Y109.63 and the 4 month support line and the 1% band at

Y109.46. The subsequent rise has now found the impetus for a move back above

Y110.70. This sees Y111.02-Y111.72 as the next potential bar to a recovery, as

we correct losses from Y112.20. Support Y110.45-Y110.15.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Y130.90-Y131.13 Remains The Bar To Renewed Upside Hopes

*RES 4: Y131.76 1% volatility band

*RES 3: Y131.41/52 Aug 2 high, 1.618 swing of Y130.51-Y128.87

*RES 2: Y131.13 Aug 4 high

*RES 1: Y130.90 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Y130.55 @0900GMT

*SUP 1: Y130.10/15 Aug 4 low, hourly congestion Aug 1

*SUP 2: Y129.84 Aug 1 low

*SUP 3: Y129.55 Jul 27, 28, Jul 31 lows

*SUP 4: Y129.07/15 4 month support line, 1% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* Support from Y130.44, in line with a 61.8% Fibo retrace of the

previous Y129.84-Y131.41 rise, has now given way, leaving the congested area

around Y130.15 as the near term protection against anything more untoward at

present. That said, will now need to see gains back above Y130.90-Y131.13 before

the upside is back on track again. A loss of Y130.10-15 will expose the Aug 1

low at Y129.84 to a test, the key Y129.55 level then of note below.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Rally Still Tracking The Upper 1% Volatility Band

*RES 4: Stg0.9151 2% volatility band

*RES 3: Stg0.9143 76.4% of Stg0.9402-Stg0.8305, Oct 10 high

*RES 2: Stg0.9091 1.618 swing of Stg0.9055-Stg0.8996

*RES 1: Stg0.9060/70 Aug 7 high, 1% volatility band

*PRICE: Stg0.9056 @0906GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.8989/96 Aug 2 high, Aug 4 low

*SUP 2: Stg0.8964 Hourly support

*SUP 3: Stg0.8946 Aug 3 hourly base

*SUP 4: Stg0.8922/23 Aug 1, intraday lows

*COMMENTARY* Last Thursday saw a fall back towards the base of the recent range

at Stg0.8922 before an impressive rise swept us through Stg0.8970 and also the

former Stg0.8989 high. Now headed towards next resistance situated between the

swing target at Stg0.9058 and the upper 1% volatility band at Stg0.9070.

Meanwhile, support rises to Stg0.8989 and then the Stg0.8964-Stg0.8946 area.

Directly above Stg0.9070 and look to Stg0.9091 as the bar to a Stg0.9143 rise.

GOLD TECHS: Recovery Falters At The 76.4% Fibo Retrace Level At $1274.6

*RES 4: $1281.5 Jun 14 high

*RES 3: $1274.6 Jun 6 low, 76.4% Fibo of $1296.1-$1204.8

*RES 2: $1270.9 Aug 3 high

*RES 1: $1264.3 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1260.9 @0908GMT

*SUP 1: $1251.1/2.1 76.4% of $1243.9-$1274.2, Jul 27 low

*SUP 2: $1243.9 Jul 26 low

*SUP 3: $1239.5 Jul 21 low

*SUP 4: $1233.1 Jul 14 high, now support

*COMMENTARY* Backed away last week after a challenge to the 76.4% Fibo retrace

level at $1274.6. Initial support from $1258.9 was breached last Wednesday but

eyes are still on the lower and more important support from between the Jul 27

low at $1252.1 and the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at $1251.1. Loss would spoil

recent upside momentum and suggest that a deeper correction is then required. In

the meantime, resistance $1264.3-$1270.9, ahead of that key $1274.6 level. 

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]