MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Key Near Term Support Remains Under Pressure

*RES 4: $1.1911/21 Aug 2 high, equality rise from $1.1119

*RES 3: $1.1860/70 Series congestion lows Aug 3-4

*RES 2: $1.1824/30 Aug 8 high, Aug 3 low

*RES 1: $1.1785/95 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.1727 @0854GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.1712 Jul 25 high, 76.4% Fibo of $1.1650-$1.1911

*SUP 2: $1.1682/84 38.2% of $1.1312-$1.1911, Jul 21 high

*SUP 3: $1.1650/65 Jul 27 low, 1% volatility band

*SUP 4: $1.1612/13 50% of $1.1312-$1.1911, Jul 16 low

*COMMENTARY* Support from the key near term level at $1.1712 has stubbornly

refused to give way so far but is likely to come under further pressure, as the

day wears on. Below here and have to think about a correction of gains from the

early July low at $1.1312, with $1.1682-$1.1684 the next port of call. For the

time being, $1.1785-95 remains as near term resistance and the bar to any

greater recovery. Lose $1.1682 and $1.1650-$1.1612 then comes into play.

CABLE TECHS: Still Await A Test To The $1.2929-$1.2920 Region

*RES 4: $1.3145/50 Hourly congestion Aug 3-4

*RES 3: $1.3112 Aug 3 low, now resistance

*RES 2: $1.3059 Aug 7 high

*RES 1: $1.3029 Intraday high

*PRICE: $1.3002 @0915GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2953 Aug 8 low

*SUP 2: $1.2920/29 76.4% $1.2812-$1.3269, 50% $1.2589-$1.3269

*SUP 3: $1.2906 1.618 swing of $1.2953-$1.3029

*SUP 4: $1.2844/49 2% vol band, 61.8% Fibo of $1.2589-$1.3269

*COMMENTARY* Resistance from $1.3059 and then $1.3029 this week, has seen

downside pressure resume. A low of $1.2953 so far, ahead of what looks a

stronger area between $1.2929-$1.2920. This a combination of two Fibo retrace

levels, the 50% of the rise from $1.2589 and perhaps slightly more importantly,

the 76.4% of the rise from $1.2812. Below here can allow an overshoot around

$1.2906 but any lower and $1.2844-49 comes into view.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Y109.63-Y109.21 Forms Some Congested Near Term Support

*RES 4: Y111.05 Aug 4 high

*RES 3: Y110.83 Aug 8 high

*RES 2: Y110.50/60 Congestion area Aug 4-Aug 7

*RES 1: Y110.10/25 Hourly resistance, initial low Aug 8

*PRICE: Y109.76 @0930GMT

*SUP 1: Y109.63 76.4% Y108.13-Y114.50, swing Y110.62-Y112.20

*SUP 2: Y109.48 4 month bull channel base

*SUP 3: Y109.21/34 1.618 swing Y109.91-Y111.05, 1% vol band

*SUP 4: Y108.82 Jun 14 low

*COMMENTARY* Finally getting a test to the Y109.63 area that we have been

calling for a while now. This at the top end of what looks a congested support

area between here and the swing target at Y109.21. Any lower and still have the

Jun 14 low at Y108.82 to negotiate, before the year's previous Y108.13 low comes

back into view. Meanwhile, look to Y110.10 and then more importantly Y110.25 for

resistance. Back above the latter now the minimum requirement for a bounce.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Breaks Below 4 Month Rising Support Line

*RES 4: Y130.45 Aug 3 low, now resistance

*RES 3: Y130.10 Aug 4 low, now resistance

*RES 2: Y129.55 Former support base late July

*RES 1: Y129.25/37 U'side 4 month suppt line, intraday high

*PRICE: Y128.99 @0946GMT

*SUP 1: Y128.49 Jul 13 low

*SUP 2: Y127.97/00 38.2% Fibo of Y122.40-Y131.41, Jul 6 low

*SUP 3: Y127.60 2% volatility band

*SUP 4: Y126.91 50% Fibo of Y122.40-Y131.41

*COMMENTARY* Support from both the congested Y129.55 area and the 4 month rising

support line at Y129.25, have given way today. This leaves the Jul 13 low at

Y128.49 as the next downside defence against a greater loss, as we correct gains

seen since the mid June low at Y122.40. In the interim, that Y129.25 level and

then the intraday high at Y129.37 form initial resistance to any recovery. Below

Y128.49 and look to Y127.97-Y127.60 next.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Swing Target At Stg0.9091 Halts Rally

*RES 4: Stg0.9170 2% volatility band

*RES 3: Stg0.9143 76.4% of Stg0.9402-Stg0.8305, Oct 10 high

*RES 2: Stg0.9091 1.618 swing of Stg0.9055-Stg0.8996

*RES 1: Stg0.9060/70 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Stg0.9023 @0951GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.9010/15 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Stg0.8989/96 Aug 2 high, Aug 4 low

*SUP 3: Stg0.8969 Jul 28 high, now support

*SUP 4: Stg0.8935/40 Congestion lows Jul 28-Aug 2

*COMMENTARY* The brief move above the upper 1% volatility band on Tuesday was

rewarded with an attempt on the next upside objective, the swing target at

Stg0.9091. Overbought in the near term as a result. A loss of Stg0.9040 will now

see pressure on stronger hourly support from Stg0.9010-15. This area should now

stay intact, if a deeper correction of gains from Stg0.8891 is to be avoided.

Resistance now from Stg0.9060-70.

GOLD TECHS: Key $1252.1-$1251.1 Support Area Holds And Prompts Bounce

*RES 4: $1288.1 1.618 swing of $1274.2-$1251.7

*RES 3: $1281.5 Jun 14 high

*RES 2: $1274.6 Jun 6 low, 76.4% Fibo of $1296.1-$1204.8

*RES 1: $1270.9 Aug 3 high

*PRICE: $1267.7 @1001GMT

*SUP 1: $1255.9 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1251.1/2.1 76.4% of $1243.9-$1274.2, Jul 27 low

*SUP 3: $1243.9 Jul 26 low

*SUP 4: $1239.5 Jul 21 low

*COMMENTARY* Found support on Tuesday from within the important area situated

between the Jul 27 low at $1252.1 and the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at $1251.1.

The subsequent bounce through $1264.3 is encouraging but now needs to break back

above the Aug 3 high at $1270.9, before the overall bias can swing higher and

focus on that 76.4% Fibo retrace level at $1274.6 again. Support meanwhile rises

to the earlier $1255.9 mark. Above $1274.6 and $1281.5-$1288.1 next.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]