MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Recovery Falters Beneath $1.1790 Resistance

*RES 4: $1.1911/21 Aug 2 high, equality rise from $1.1119

*RES 3: $1.1860/70 Series congestion lows Aug 3-4

*RES 2: $1.1824/30 Aug 8 high, Aug 3 low

*RES 1: $1.1786/90 Aug 10 high, hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.1754 @0909GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.1705/15 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.1682/89 38.2% of $1.1312-$1.1911, Jul 21 high

*SUP 3: $1.1650 Jul 27 low

*SUP 4: $1.1629 1.618 swing of $1.1689-$1.1786

*COMMENTARY* Having lost $1.1712 support on Wednesday, we began a correction of

gains from the early July low at $1.1312. A low of $1.1689 so far, just ahead of

the next $1.1682-$1.1684 target area. The 1% volatility band is at the slightly

lower $1.1680 level today. Meanwhile the subsequent recovery has reached into

near term resistance between $1.1770-$1.1790. The latter the bar to any greater

recovery. Lose $1.1682-$1.1680 and then $1.1650-$1.1612 comes into play.

CABLE TECHS: $1.2929-$1.2920 Region Remains Unscathed So Far

*RES 4: $1.3145/50 Hourly congestion Aug 3-4

*RES 3: $1.3112 Aug 3 low, now resistance

*RES 2: $1.3059 Aug 7 high

*RES 1: $1.3029 Aug 9 high

*PRICE: $1.2968 @0912GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2951/53 Aug 10, Aug 8 lows

*SUP 2: $1.2920/29 76.4% $1.2812-$1.3269, 50% $1.2589-$1.3269

*SUP 3: $1.2906 1.618 swing of $1.2953-$1.3029

*SUP 4: $1.2849 61.8% Fibo of $1.2589-$1.3269

*COMMENTARY* Resistance from $1.3059 and then $1.3029 this week, has seen

downside pressure resume. A low of $1.2951 so far, ahead of what looks a

stronger area between $1.2929-$1.2920. This a combination of two Fibo retrace

levels, the 50% of the rise from $1.2589 and perhaps slightly more importantly,

the 76.4% of the rise from $1.2812. Below here can allow an overshoot around

$1.2906 but any lower and $1.2849 comes into view.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Loss Of Y109.21 Puts Y108.82 At Risk

*RES 4: Y110.60/65 Congestion area Aug 4-Aug 8 

*RES 3: Y110.18 Aug 10 high

*RES 2: Y109.84 Aug 3 low, now resistance

*RES 1: Y109.56 Aug 9 low, hourly resistance

*PRICE: Y109.00 @0927GMT

*SUP 1: Y108.82 Jun 14 low

*SUP 2: Y108.32 Equality fall from Y112.20 to Y114.50-Y110.62

*SUP 3: Y108.05/13 5 week bear channel proj'n, Apr 17 low

*SUP 4: Y107.92 2% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* Has worked its way through congested support from between

Y109.63-Y109.21 and is now poised for an assault on the Jun 14 low at Y108.82.

Can be helped in the near term by some oversold hourly conditions but will need

to find a way back through Y109.56-Y109.84, before any confidence in a recovery

will appear and a challenge to Thursday's Y110.18 high. Below Y108.82 and the

equality fall target at Y108.32 is all that protects the year's Y108.13 low.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Continues Fall After Break Below 4 Month Rising Support Line

*RES 4: Y130.10 Aug 4 low, now resistance

*RES 3: Y129.55/56 Former support base late July, Aug 9 high

*RES 2: Y129.25 Initial low Aug 10, now resistance

*RES 1: Y128.75/80 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Y128.10 @0934GMT

*SUP 1: Y127.97/00 38.2% Fibo of Y122.40-Y131.41, Jul 6 low

*SUP 2: Y127.75 1.618 swing of Y128.44-Y129.56

*SUP 3: Y127.34 2% volatility band

*SUP 4: Y126.91 50% Fibo of Y122.40-Y131.4

*COMMENTARY* Support from both the congested Y129.55 area and the 4 month rising

support line gave way on Wednesday, as did the Y128.44-49 area yesterday. This

leaves Y128.00-Y127.97 as the next line of defence and protection against a

further fall toward Y127.75-Y127.34 next. In the interim, Y128.75-Y129.25 forms

initial resistance, the former support base at Y129.55 of more consequence

higher. Sustained move below Y127.34 and look to Y126.91 next.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Key Near Term Support Has Survived This Week

*RES 4: Stg0.9143 76.4% of Stg0.9402-Stg0.8305, Oct 10 high

*RES 3: Stg0.9108 1% volatility band

*RES 2: Stg0.9091 1.618 swing of Stg0.9055-Stg0.8996

*RES 1: Stg0.9075 Aug 10 high

*PRICE: Stg0.9067 @0942GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.9008/09 Aug 10, Aug 9 lows, 4 week support line

*SUP 2: Stg0.8989/96 Aug 2 high, Aug 4 low

*SUP 3: Stg0.8969 Jul 28 high, now support

*SUP 4: Stg0.8935/40 Congestion lows Jul 28-Aug 2

*COMMENTARY* The brief move above the upper 1% volatility band on Tuesday was

rewarded with an attempt on the next upside objective, the swing target at

Stg0.9091. The subsequent loss of Stg0.9040 has seen pressure on support around

Stg0.9010 with Stg0.8989-Stg0.8996 below. This area should now stay intact, if a

deeper correction of gains from Stg0.8891 is to be avoided. Resistance now from

Thursday's Stg0.9075 high.

GOLD TECHS: $1288.1-$1293.6 Now In Way Of Return To The Year's High

*RES 4: $1315.7 76.4% Fibo of $1375.4-$1122.6

*RES 3: $1296.1 Jun 6 high

*RES 2: $1293.6 One month bull channel top projection

*RES 1: $1288.1/89.1 1.618 swing $1274.2-$1251.7. i'day high

*PRICE: $1287.9 @0950GMT

*SUP 1: $1280.3 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1274.2 Aug 1 high, now support

*SUP 3: $1265.3 Aug 8 high, now support

*SUP 4: $1260.1 Aug 9 low

*COMMENTARY* Rally has continued again today, now reaching and slightly breaking

above the swing target at $1288.1. A high of $1289.1 so far, with the near term

bull channel projection at $1293.6, then all that bars the way to the year's

previous $1296.1 high. As a result, nearest support rises to $1280.3, with the

Aug 1 high at $1274.4, currently of more importance below. A sustained break

above $1296.1 and the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at $1315.7 comes back into view.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]