MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Key $1.1682 Support Area Comes Under Assault On Thursday

*RES 4: $1.1911/21 Aug 2 high, equality rise from $1.1119

*RES 3: $1.1847 Aug 11 high

*RES 2: $1.1790/00 Hourly resistance

*RES 1: $1.1760 Intraday high

*PRICE: $1.1744 @0850GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.1680/85 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.1650/62 1% volatility band, Aug 17 low

*SUP 3: $1.1625 Equality fall from $1.1847 to $1.1911-$1.1689

*SUP 4: $1.1612/13 50% of $1.1312-$1.1911, Jul 26 low

*COMMENTARY* The key $1.1682 support area came under assault yesterday, a brief

dip to $1.1662 before recovering yet again. To be of any consequence however,

will need to see a rally through $1.1760-$1.1800, before the belief in any

correction will appear. In the interim, look to that $1.1680-85 area again for

initial support, loss of $1.1662 will have the potential to test $1.1625-$1.1588

next, as this pullback continues.

CABLE TECHS: $1.2915-$1.2939 The Bar To Better Recovery Prospects

*RES 4: $1.3032 Aug 11 high

*RES 3: $1.2991 Hourly recovery high Aug 14

*RES 2: $1.2939 Aug 11 low, now resistance

*RES 1: $1.2915/20 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.2908 @0903GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2860 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.2842 Aug 16 low

*SUP 3: $1.2812/22 Jul 12 low, 1% volatility band

*SUP 4: $1.2749 76.4% Fibo of $1.2589-$1.3269

*COMMENTARY* The support area between $1.2842-$1.2860 is proving difficult to

leave behind. This survived another test on Thursday and has been followed by a

small bounce. That said, will need to recover $1.2915-$1.2939 before the near

term impetus for a better $1.2991-$1.3032 recovery will appear. Failure to

navigate $1.2939 will eventually see pressure return to the downside, below

$1.2842 and $1.2812-$1.2822 is then the protection to a deeper $1.2749 fall.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Downside Back Under Pressure After Y109.25 Support Gives Way

*RES 4: Y110.93/95 38.2% of Y114.50-Y108.73, Aug 16 high

*RES 3: Y110.38 Aug 17 high

*RES 2: Y110.05 Hourly recovery high Aug 17

*RES 1: Y109.55/65 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Y109.06 @0915GMT

*SUP 1: Y108.70/73 1% volatility band, Aug 11 low

*SUP 2: Y108.13 Apr 17 low

*SUP 3: Y107.62 2% volatility band

*SUP 4: Y107.36 1.618 swing of Y108.73-Y110.95

*COMMENTARY* The failure to recover through the 38.2% Fibo retrace level at

Y110.93, coupled with a loss of Y109.25 support today, has seen near term bias

once again switch to the downside. The Y108.70-Y108.73 area now the protection

against a fall to the year's previous Y108.13 base. Meanwhile, resistance

initially from Y109.55-65, with Thursday's Y110.05 recovery high of more

importance above.  Lose Y108.13 and look to Y107.62-Y107.36 next.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Wobbles As Y127.97-Y127.90 Support Comes Under Assault

*RES 4: Y129.80 Congestion area Aug 15-Aug 16

*RES 3: Y129.54 Aug 17 high

*RES 2: Y129.13/16 Hourly low/high Aug 17

*RES 1: Y128.45/55 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Y128.21 @0928GMT

*SUP 1: Y127.82/90 Intraday low, 1% volatility band

*SUP 2: Y127.04 Equality fall from Y130.40 to Y131.41-Y128.05

*SUP 3: Y126.91 50% Fibo of Y122.40-Y131.41

*SUP 4: Y126.60 1.618 swing Y128.05-Y130.40, 2% vol band

*COMMENTARY* The hold above the key Y127.97 area last week saw a recovery but

this was unable to sustain a move back above the broken 4 month support line, at

Y130.48 by time today. As a consequence, the subsequent fall has lost support

from Y128.92-Y128.60, the latter the protection against a fresh move lower. In

this respect, the day's Y127.82 low now guards against a further Y127.04-Y126.60

fall. Resistance from Y128.45-55 with Y129.13-16 above.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Key Support Seen Between Stg0.9077 And Stg0.9040 Fibo Level

*RES 4: Stg0.9174 1% volatility band

*RES 3: Stg0.9161 1.618 swing of Stg0.9119-Stg0.9051

*RES 2: Stg0.9143/44 76.4% Stg0.9402-Stg0.8305, Aug 16 high

*RES 1: Stg0.9125/30 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Stg0.9109 @0935GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.9077 5 week rising support line

*SUP 2: Stg0.9064 Aug 17 low

*SUP 3: Stg0.9040/51 76.4% of Stg0.9008-Stg0.9144, Aug 15 low

*SUP 4: Stg0.9008/09 Aug 10, Aug 9 lows

*COMMENTARY* The hold of Stg0.9008-09 last week, has been followed by a move

back above Stg0.9091-Stg0.9119 resistance. This has culminated in a challenge to

the key Stg0.9143 area. Will need to sustain a move through here, before the

next targets between Stg0.9161 and the upper 1% volatility band at Stg0.9174 can

be met. Meanwhile, the 5 week support line at Stg0.9077 and the 76.4% Fibo

retrace level at Stg0.9040 now provide next key levels of support.

GOLD TECHS: Fresh Rise Has A $1304.1-$1315.7 Rally In Mind

*RES 4: $1315.7 76.4% Fibo of $1375.4-$1122.6

*RES 3: $1307.7 1.618 swing of $1292.3-$1267.4

*RES 2: $1304.1 Equality rise from $1281.2 to $1267.4-$1290.3

*RES 1: $1298.0 Intraday high

*PRICE: $1295.5 @0950GMT

*SUP 1: $1286.0 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1281.8 Intraday low

*SUP 3: $1274.6 Initial recovery high Aug 16, now support

*SUP 4: $1269.6 6 week rising support line

*COMMENTARY* The rally after finding support from just above the 61.8% Fibo

retrace level at $1267.2 on Tuesday, has gathered pace. Today we have seen a

move through the year's previous $1296.1 high, which suggests that there is

scope to see an eventual test to the longer term 76.4% Fibo retrace level at

$1315.7. Look to $1304.1-$1307.7 along the way. Support $1286.0 and then the

day's $1281.8 low.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]