MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: $1.1800-$1.1847 The Bar To Any Fresh Recovery Hopes

*RES 4: $1.1911/21 Aug 2 high, equality rise from $1.1119

*RES 3: $1.1879 1% volatility band

*RES 2: $1.1847 Aug 11 high

*RES 1: $1.1790/00 Aug 17 high, hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.1739 @0859GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.1690/05 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.1644/62 1% volatility band, Aug 17 low

*SUP 3: $1.1625 Equality fall from $1.1847 to $1.1911-$1.1689

*SUP 4: $1.1612/13 50% of $1.1312-$1.1911, Jul 26 low

*COMMENTARY* The key $1.1682 support area came under assault last week, a brief

dip to $1.1662 before recovering yet again. To be of any consequence however,

will need to see a rally through $1.1800-$1.1847, before the belief in any

renewed upside potential will appear. In the interim, look to that

$1.1705-$1.1690 for initial support, loss of $1.1662-$1.1644 will have the

potential to test $1.1625-$1.1591 next, as this pullback continues.

CABLE TECHS: $1.2918-$1.2939 Still The Bar To Better Recovery Prospects

*RES 4: $1.2991 Hourly recovery high Aug 14

*RES 3: $1.2939 Aug 11 low, now resistance

*RES 2: $1.2918 Aug 18 high

*RES 1: $1.2885/95 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.2870 @0909GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2831/40 Aug 18 low, hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.2802/12 1% volatility band, Jul 12 low

*SUP 3: $1.2764 38.2% Fibo of $1.1947-$1.3269

*SUP 4: $1.2749 76.4% Fibo of $1.2589-$1.3269

*COMMENTARY* The support area between $1.2831-$1.2840 is still proving difficult

to leave behind. This survived another test on Friday and has been followed by a

small bounce. That said, will need to recover $1.2918-$1.2939 before the near

term impetus for a better $1.2991-$1.3032 recovery will appear. Failure to

navigate $1.2939 will eventually see pressure return to the downside, below

$1.2831 and $1.2802-12 is then the protection to a deeper $1.2764-$1.2749 fall.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Friday's Rally Provides Interesting 'Doji' Candle Close

*RES 4: Y110.93/95 38.2% of Y114.50-Y108.73, Aug 16 high

*RES 3: Y110.38 Aug 17 high

*RES 2: Y110.05 Hourly recovery high Aug 17

*RES 1: Y109.61/67 Aug 18 high, hourly resistance

*PRICE: Y109.06 @0922GMT

*SUP 1: Y108.85 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Y108.58/60 1% volatility band, Aug 18 low

*SUP 3: Y108.13 Apr 17 low

*SUP 4: Y107.36/48 1.618 swing Y108.73-Y110.95, 2% vol band

*COMMENTARY* A fall to a fresh Y108.60 low on Friday but the subsequent recovery

formed a 'Doji' candle close on the daily chart. Will need to survive another

assault today, before this becomes more interesting and perhaps suggest better

scope for a recovery. Meanwhile, Y109.61-67 provides initial resistance,

Y110.05-Y110.38 of more consequence higher. Below Y108.58-60 and look to the

year's previous Y108.13 low as protection to Y107.48-Y107.36.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Decline Still Using Lower 1% Volatility Band For Guidance

*RES 4: Y129.77 Recovery high Aug 16

*RES 3: Y129.38 Congestion area Aug 17 

*RES 2: Y129.13/16 Hourly low/high Aug 17

*RES 1: Y128.79 Aug 18 high

*PRICE: Y128.12 @0933GMT

*SUP 1: Y127.80/85 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Y127.56/60 Aug 18 low, 1% volatility band

*SUP 3: Y127.04 Equality fall from Y130.40 to Y131.41-Y128.05

*SUP 4: Y126.91 50% Fibo of Y122.40-Y131.41

*COMMENTARY* Still losing ground, the decline currently using the lower 1%

volatility band as a median for it's travels. A low of Y127.56 on Friday before

seeing a bounce, this will need to move back above Y128.79 before thoughts can

turn to a higher Y129.13-Y129.38 recovery. In the interim, Y127.80-85 offers

immediate protection to Y127.56 again, beneath which Y127.04-Y126.91 becomes the

next target zone.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Key Near Term Support Rises To Stg0.9091-Stg0.9085

*RES 4: Stg0.9245 4 month bull channel top projection

*RES 3: Stg0.9183 1% volatility band

*RES 2: Stg0.9161 1.618 swing of Stg0.9119-Stg0.9051

*RES 1: Stg0.9143/49 76.4% Stg0.9402-Stg0.8305, Aug 18 high

*PRICE: Stg0.9116 @0942GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.9085/91 Hourly suppt, 5 week rising support line

*SUP 2: Stg0.9064 Aug 17 low

*SUP 3: Stg0.9041/51 76.4% of Stg0.9008-Stg0.9144, Aug 15 low

*SUP 4: Stg0.9008/09 Aug 10, Aug 9 lows

*COMMENTARY* The hold of Stg0.9008-09 earlier in the month, has been followed by

a move back above Stg0.9091-Stg0.9119 resistance. This has culminated in a

challenge to the key Stg0.9143 area, a high of Stg0.9149 on Friday. Will need to

sustain a move through here, before the next targets between Stg0.9161 and the

upper 1% volatility band at Stg0.9183 can be met. Meanwhile, the 5 week support

line at Stg0.9091 and hourly support at Stg0.9085 protect the downside.

GOLD TECHS: Rally Pulls Up Shy Of $1307.7-$1315.7 Target Zone

*RES 4: $1315.7 76.4% Fibo of $1375.4-$1122.6

*RES 3: $1307.7 1.618 swing of $1292.3-$1267.4

*RES 2: $1300.9 Aug 18 high

*RES 1: $1296.1 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1287.8 @0950GMT

*SUP 1: $1280.6 Aug 18 low

*SUP 2: $1274.6 Initial recovery high Aug 16, now support

*SUP 3: $1271.8 7 week rising support line

*SUP 4: $1267.4 Aug 15 low

*COMMENTARY* A spike above the year's previous $1296.1 high last Friday did not

see much longevity, falling back after reaching a high of $1300.9. This somewhat

shy of the swing target at $1307.7 and the favoured 76.4% Fibo retrace level at

$1315.7. Immediate support from that pullback low at $1280.6 and then more

importantly from between $1274.6-$1271.8. The latter the current level of the 7

week rising support line.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]