MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: 1.1847 Break Still The Marker For Fresh Upside Interest

*RES 4: $1.2008 2% volatility band

*RES 3: $1.1911/21 Aug 2 high, equality rise from $1.1119

*RES 2: $1.1890 1% volatility band

*RES 1: $1.1847 Aug 11 high

*PRICE: $1.1781 @0810GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.1755/65 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.1720/30 Hourly base Aug 18, Aug 21 low

*SUP 3: $1.1654/62 1% volatility band, Aug 17 low

*SUP 4: $1.1625 Equality fall from $1.1847 to $1.1911-$1.1689

*COMMENTARY* The recovery from last week's dip to $1.1662 continues but without

as yet a break back above the Aug 11 high at $1.1847. Really need to see levels

above here, before the belief in the upside will return and for a higher

$1.1890-$1.1921 rise. As a result, support also on the move, $1.1765-$1.1720 the

initial area of interest and protection against a renewed downside push, with

$1.1662-$1.1654 the brake to anything more serious at present.

CABLE TECHS: $1.2918-$1.2939 Still The Bar To Better Recovery Prospects

*RES 4: $1.2991 Hourly recovery high Aug 14

*RES 3: $1.2939 Aug 11 low, now resistance

*RES 2: $1.2917/18 Aug 21, Aug 18 highs

*RES 1: $1.2890/00 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.2850 @0815GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2831 Aug 18 low

*SUP 2: $1.2791/12 1% volatility band, Jul 12 low

*SUP 3: $1.2764 38.2% Fibo of $1.1947-$1.3269

*SUP 4: $1.2749 76.4% Fibo of $1.2589-$1.3269

*COMMENTARY* The $1.2830-$1.2840 area is still proving difficult to leave

behind. This survived another test last Friday and has been followed by a small

bounce. That said, still need to recover $1.2918-$1.2939 before the near term

impetus for a better $1.2991-$1.3032 recovery will appear. Failure to navigate

$1.2939 will eventually see pressure return to the downside, below $1.2831 and

$1.2812-$1.2791 is then the protection against a deeper $1.2764-$1.2749 fall.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Friday's 'Doji' Candle Close Survives Another Test On Monday

*RES 4: Y110.93/95 38.2% of Y114.50-Y108.73, Aug 16 high

*RES 3: Y110.38 Aug 17 high

*RES 2: Y110.05 Hourly recovery high Aug 17

*RES 1: Y109.61/67 Aug 18 high, hourly resistance

*PRICE: Y109.36 @0822GMT

*SUP 1: Y108.85/95 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Y108.50/60 1% volatility band, Aug 18 low

*SUP 3: Y108.13 Apr 17 low

*SUP 4: Y107.36/40 1.618 swing Y108.73-Y110.95, 2% vol band

*COMMENTARY* A fall to Y108.60 low last Friday but the subsequent recovery

formed a 'Doji' candle close on the daily chart. This survived another assault

on Monday, a low of Y108.64 before seeing another bounce and the chance for a

better recovery. This will need to break Y109.61-67 initially with the

Y110.05-Y110.38 area then of more consequence higher. Lose Y108.50-60 and

outlook changes, with the year's  Y108.13 low as protection to Y107.40-Y107.36.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Decline Still Using Lower 1% Volatility Band For Guidance

*RES 4: Y130.30/40 1% volatility band, Aug 16 high

*RES 3: Y129.77 Recovery high Aug 16

*RES 2: Y129.38 Congestion area Aug 17 

*RES 1: Y129.16/19 Hourly high Aug 17, intraday high

*PRICE: Y128.73 @0836GMT

*SUP 1: Y128.40/45 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Y127.84 Aug 21 low

*SUP 3: Y127.56/65 Aug 18 low, 1% volatility band

*SUP 4: Y127.04 Equality fall from Y130.40 to Y131.41-Y128.05

*COMMENTARY* The lower 1% volatility band has provided a prop over the last few

days and indeed allowed a small recovery. This has reached Y126.19 so far but

still lacking the impetus for an assault on the more important Y129.38-Y129.77

area. Will need to see gains back through the latter, before the overall focus

can return to the topside. Meanwhile, Y128.40-45 provides initial support,

Y127.84 then protecting the volatility band again.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Rally Aims For Next Stg0.9194-Stg0.9200 Target Area

*RES 4: Stg0.9252 4 month bull channel top projection

*RES 3: Stg0.9200 1% volatility band

*RES 2: Stg0.9194 1.618 swing of Stg0.9144-Stg0.9063

*RES 1: Stg0.9173 Intraday high

*PRICE: Stg0.9160 @0847GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.9125/35 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Stg0.9105/11 6 week rising support line, Aug 21 low

*SUP 3: Stg0.9091 Aug 18 low

*SUP 4: Stg0.9063 Aug 17 low

*COMMENTARY* Gradually moving higher, having managed to shake off the shackles

provided by the Stg0.9143-Stg0.9144 area over the earlier part of the month. A

high of Stg0.9173 so far today, as we move towards the next area of interest

between the swing target at Stg0.9194 and the upper 1% volatility band at

Stg0.9200. Initial support now seen from between Stg0.9135-Stg0.9125 but it is

the 6 week rising support line at Stg0.9105 that provides the main back up.

GOLD TECHS: Rally Pulls Up Shy Of $1307.7-$1315.7 Target Zone

*RES 4: $1315.7 76.4% Fibo of $1375.4-$1122.6

*RES 3: $1307.7 1.618 swing of $1292.3-$1267.4

*RES 2: $1300.9 Aug 18 high

*RES 1: $1296.1 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1284.9 @0853GMT

*SUP 1: $1280.6 Aug 18 low

*SUP 2: $1274.0 7 week rising support line

*SUP 3: $1267.4 Aug 15 low

*SUP 4: $1260.1 Aug 9 low

*COMMENTARY* A spike above the year's previous $1296.1 high last Friday did not

see much longevity, falling back after reaching a high of $1300.9. This somewhat

shy of the swing target at $1307.7 and the favoured 76.4% Fibo retrace level at

$1315.7. Immediate support from that pullback low at $1280.6 and then more

importantly from between $1274.2-$1274.0. The latter the current level of the 7

week rising support line.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]